As an NYU student, I'll be the first to admit that I lived in a bubble, especially on social media regarding the 2016 election, I was really surprised by the results, and while all the articles I have read have provided context, I believe that the analysis below puts a different spin on things.
The goal of this is to deconstruct the 2016 election results by comparing it to the 2012 election. Using data from both elections, I plan to look at what changed from one election cycle to the next in swing states. The data was collected from kaggle and has been analyzed by multiple other sources before. I think looking at county data and looking at only swing states allows me to create an analysis that hasn't really been seen before.
In [3]:
import sys # system module
import pandas as pd # data package
from bqplot import Map, AlbersUSA, OrdinalColorScale, ColorAxis, Figure, topo_load
import requests
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt # graphics module
import datetime as dt # date and time module
import numpy as np # foundation for Pandas
import seaborn.apionly as sns # fancy matplotlib graphics (no styling)
from pandas_datareader import wb, data as web # worldbank data
# plotly imports
from plotly.offline import iplot, iplot_mpl # plotting functions
import plotly.graph_objs as go # ditto
import plotly # just to print version and init notebook
import cufflinks as cf # gives us df.iplot that feels like df.plot
cf.set_config_file(offline=True, offline_show_link=False)
# these lines make our graphics show up in the notebook
%matplotlib inline
plotly.offline.init_notebook_mode(connected=True)
# check versions (overkill, but why not?)
print('Python version:', sys.version)
print('Pandas version: ', pd.__version__)
print('Plotly version: ', plotly.__version__)
print('Today: ', dt.date.today())
Python version: 3.5.2 |Anaconda 4.2.0 (x86_64)| (default, Jul 2 2016, 17:52:12)
[GCC 4.2.1 Compatible Apple LLVM 4.2 (clang-425.0.28)]
Pandas version: 0.19.0
Plotly version: 1.12.11
Today: 2016-12-22
The data was easy to access, you only needed to sign up for an account in kaggle, but would not open properly when downloaded with safari. So I downloaded it on chrome and saved it to my desktop.
In [4]:
url = "https://www.kaggle.com/joelwilson/2012-2016-presidential-elections/downloads/votes.csv.zip"
r = requests.get(url)
# describe response
print('Response status code:', r.status_code)
print('Response type:', type(r))
print('Response .content:', type(r.content))
print('Response headers:\n', r.headers, sep='')
Response status code: 200
Response type: <class 'requests.models.Response'>
Response .content: <class 'bytes'>
Response headers:
{'Content-Encoding': 'gzip', 'X-Frame-Options': 'SAMEORIGIN, SAMEORIGIN', 'Content-Length': '5294', 'Content-Type': 'text/html; charset=utf-8', 'Vary': 'Accept-Encoding', 'Cache-Control': 'private', 'Date': 'Thu, 22 Dec 2016 21:44:09 GMT', 'Set-Cookie': 'AndNowBackToOurRegularlyScheduledProgramming=i5arxVN8KU4twc8pDSv4IYm5x1FaQjo2cyttdWzx02WjI4-GwHaQRrUI6sdta_KqFinrqQxJI4auvzP1HJTzcf9Q2KYu39G3cNZzLzbXgdTRUHiLC0tCUcYjyHAVtZ8t2eI0bjNjTazBe5QTwzTJ2pcIs9Y1; path=/, __RequestVerificationToken=RkUjCepM-53Uue68ZYxP0pN-dkQYR3NhVU3EVjSoFRATyoA18YE792LJcxo9t0wC38lzKNhgVRcPxkn6g1YdZDCU3Gk1; path=/; HttpOnly'}
In [353]:
location ="~/Desktop/votes-3.csv"
raw = pd.read_csv(location,index_col=0)
So I first wanted to check what the raw file looked like, and its massive, 3000+ rows and 81 columns originally. Obviously this needs to be sized down. Unfortunately, there's a lot of codes in the column titles so the first goal is to make it comprehensible.
In [308]:
print(raw)
X combined_fips votes_dem_2016 votes_gop_2016 total_votes_2016 \
30 29 1001 5908 18110 24661
31 30 1003 18409 72780 94090
32 31 1005 4848 5431 10390
33 32 1007 1874 6733 8748
34 33 1009 2150 22808 25384
35 34 1011 3530 1139 4701
36 35 1013 3716 4891 8685
37 36 1015 13197 32803 47376
38 37 1017 5763 7803 13778
39 38 1019 1524 8809 10503
40 39 1021 2909 15068 18255
41 40 1023 3109 4102 7268
42 41 1025 5712 7109 12936
43 42 1027 1234 5230 6572
44 43 1029 684 5738 6532
45 44 1031 4194 15825 20513
46 45 1033 7296 16718 24626
47 46 1035 3069 3413 6543
48 47 1037 1780 3376 5223
49 48 1039 2379 13222 15818
50 49 1041 1663 4511 6252
51 50 1043 3730 32734 37278
52 51 1045 4408 13798 18617
53 52 1047 12826 5784 18730
54 53 1049 3682 21779 26086
55 54 1051 8436 27619 36905
56 55 1053 4698 10282 15213
57 56 1055 10350 32132 43474
58 57 1057 1358 6705 8196
59 58 1059 2197 9466 11955
... ... ... ... ... ...
3112 3111 54097 1763 6971 9180
3113 3112 54099 3334 11077 15080
3114 3113 54101 554 2284 2955
3115 3114 54103 1348 4461 6191
3116 3115 54105 383 1903 2410
3117 3116 54107 8327 25168 35256
3118 3117 54109 1061 6527 7809
3119 3118 56001 6888 7601 16420
3120 3119 56003 594 4067 5079
3121 3120 56005 1324 15778 17935
3122 3121 56007 1279 4409 6200
3123 3122 56009 668 5520 6552
3124 3123 56011 271 3347 3771
3125 3124 56013 4200 11167 16543
3126 3125 56015 924 4418 5708
3127 3126 56017 400 1939 2535
3128 3127 56019 638 3477 4349
3129 3128 56021 11572 24844 39945
3130 3129 56023 1105 6779 8398
3131 3130 56025 6573 23523 32493
3132 3131 56027 115 1116 1297
3133 3132 56029 2535 11115 14634
3134 3133 56031 719 3437 4460
3135 3134 56033 2926 10266 14187
3136 3135 56035 644 3409 4297
3137 3136 56037 3233 12153 16661
3138 3137 56039 7313 3920 12176
3139 3138 56041 1202 6154 8053
3140 3139 56043 532 2911 3715
3141 3140 56045 294 2898 3334
Clinton Trump diff_2016 per_point_diff_2016 state_abbr \
30 0.239569 0.734358 12202 -0.494789 AL
31 0.195653 0.773515 54371 -0.577862 AL
32 0.466603 0.522714 583 -0.056112 AL
33 0.214220 0.769662 4859 -0.555441 AL
34 0.084699 0.898519 20658 -0.813820 AL
35 0.750904 0.242289 2391 0.508615 AL
36 0.427864 0.563155 1175 -0.135291 AL
37 0.278559 0.692397 19606 -0.413838 AL
38 0.418276 0.566338 2040 -0.148062 AL
39 0.145101 0.838713 7285 -0.693611 AL
40 0.159354 0.825418 12159 -0.666064 AL
41 0.427766 0.564392 993 -0.136626 AL
42 0.441558 0.549552 1397 -0.107993 AL
43 0.187766 0.795800 3996 -0.608034 AL
44 0.104715 0.878445 5054 -0.773729 AL
45 0.204456 0.771462 11631 -0.567006 AL
46 0.296272 0.678876 9422 -0.382604 AL
47 0.469051 0.521626 344 -0.052575 AL
48 0.340800 0.646372 1596 -0.305572 AL
49 0.150398 0.835883 10843 -0.685485 AL
50 0.265995 0.721529 2848 -0.455534 AL
51 0.100059 0.878105 29004 -0.778046 AL
52 0.236773 0.741151 9390 -0.504378 AL
53 0.684784 0.308809 7042 0.375974 AL
54 0.141149 0.834892 18097 -0.693744 AL
55 0.228587 0.748381 19183 -0.519794 AL
56 0.308815 0.675869 5584 -0.367054 AL
57 0.238073 0.739108 21782 -0.501035 AL
58 0.165691 0.818082 5347 -0.652391 AL
59 0.183772 0.791803 7269 -0.608030 AL
... ... ... ... ... ...
3112 0.192048 0.759368 5208 -0.567320 WV
3113 0.221088 0.734549 7743 -0.513462 WV
3114 0.187479 0.772927 1730 -0.585448 WV
3115 0.217735 0.720562 3113 -0.502827 WV
3116 0.158921 0.789627 1520 -0.630705 WV
3117 0.236187 0.713864 16841 -0.477678 WV
3118 0.135869 0.835830 5466 -0.699962 WV
3119 0.419488 0.462911 713 -0.043423 WY
3120 0.116952 0.800748 3473 -0.683796 WY
3121 0.073822 0.879732 14454 -0.805910 WY
3122 0.206290 0.711129 3130 -0.504839 WY
3123 0.101954 0.842491 4852 -0.740537 WY
3124 0.071864 0.887563 3076 -0.815699 WY
3125 0.253884 0.675029 6967 -0.421145 WY
3126 0.161878 0.774001 3494 -0.612123 WY
3127 0.157791 0.764892 1539 -0.607101 WY
3128 0.146700 0.799494 2839 -0.652794 WY
3129 0.289698 0.621955 13272 -0.332257 WY
3130 0.131579 0.807216 5674 -0.675637 WY
3131 0.202290 0.723941 16950 -0.521651 WY
3132 0.088666 0.860447 1001 -0.771781 WY
3133 0.173227 0.759533 8580 -0.586306 WY
3134 0.161211 0.770628 2718 -0.609417 WY
3135 0.206245 0.723620 7340 -0.517375 WY
3136 0.149872 0.793344 2765 -0.643472 WY
3137 0.194046 0.729428 8920 -0.535382 WY
3138 0.600608 0.321945 3393 0.278663 WY
3139 0.149261 0.764187 4952 -0.614926 WY
3140 0.143203 0.783580 2379 -0.640377 WY
3141 0.088182 0.869226 2604 -0.781044 WY
... AFN120207 BPS030214 LND110210 Density \
30 ... 88157 131 594.44 91.8
31 ... 436955 1384 1589.78 114.6
32 ... 0 8 884.88 31.0
33 ... 10757 19 622.58 36.8
34 ... 20941 3 644.78 88.9
35 ... 3670 1 622.81 17.5
36 ... 28427 2 776.83 27.0
37 ... 186533 114 605.87 195.7
38 ... 23237 8 596.53 57.4
39 ... 13948 2 553.70 46.9
40 ... 34073 78 692.85 63.0
41 ... 11345 0 913.50 15.2
42 ... 23596 11 1238.47 20.9
43 ... 4352 0 603.96 23.1
44 ... 4134 1 560.10 26.7
45 ... 50080 58 678.97 73.6
46 ... 61935 143 592.62 91.8
47 ... 8667 3 850.16 15.6
48 ... 575 0 650.93 17.7
49 ... 30271 8 1030.46 36.6
50 ... 5640 2 608.84 22.8
51 ... 102291 77 734.84 109.4
52 ... 37229 17 561.15 89.6
53 ... 33708 17 978.70 44.8
54 ... 67915 31 777.09 91.5
55 ... 47884 259 618.49 128.2
56 ... 31909 26 945.08 40.5
57 ... 137966 79 534.99 195.2
58 ... 10869 0 627.66 27.5
59 ... 25389 13 633.82 50.0
... ... ... ... ... ...
3112 ... 24548 100 354.64 68.4
3113 ... 18397 16 505.98 84.0
3114 ... 1965 0 553.47 16.5
3115 ... 21022 20 358.06 46.3
3116 ... 863 19 232.51 24.6
3117 ... 157906 105 366.26 237.4
3118 ... 9872 2 499.45 47.6
3119 ... 65787 99 4273.84 8.5
3120 ... 5611 13 3137.10 3.7
3121 ... 89245 163 4802.71 9.6
3122 ... 42949 31 7897.58 2.0
3123 ... 20947 43 4254.88 3.3
3124 ... 6135 5 2854.41 2.5
3125 ... 66975 18 9183.81 4.4
3126 ... 11779 1 2225.39 6.0
3127 ... 10368 0 2004.09 2.4
3128 ... 20749 12 4154.15 2.1
3129 ... 173722 403 2685.91 34.2
3130 ... 21115 68 4076.13 4.4
3131 ... 167974 330 5340.35 14.1
3132 ... 3071 1 2626.04 0.9
3133 ... 132951 131 6942.08 4.1
3134 ... 12103 22 2084.21 4.2
3135 ... 66787 117 2523.99 11.5
3136 ... 19746 27 4886.54 2.1
3137 ... 150439 227 10426.65 4.2
3138 ... 327363 145 3995.38 5.3
3139 ... 35497 40 2081.26 10.1
3140 ... 10175 4 2238.55 3.8
3141 ... 7520 1 2398.09 3.0
Clinton_Obama Trump_Romney Trump_Prediction Clinton_Prediction \
30 -0.026189 0.008021 0.620859 0.340493
31 -0.020013 -0.000383 0.586749 0.359502
32 -0.045920 0.039339 0.517832 0.474693
33 -0.047965 0.038998 0.692227 0.286031
34 -0.038779 0.033590 0.789649 0.177490
35 -0.012165 0.007238 0.445269 0.572216
36 -0.032644 0.027354 0.522492 0.463313
37 -0.056649 0.037726 0.633974 0.337479
38 -0.052333 0.044706 0.585176 0.403332
39 -0.072704 0.070964 0.761090 0.204391
40 -0.035151 0.027551 0.728334 0.243327
41 -0.047438 0.043362 0.589446 0.402700
42 -0.015301 0.009811 0.528903 0.453499
43 -0.078800 0.072608 0.747267 0.228325
44 -0.049363 0.042361 0.817945 0.153821
45 -0.044035 0.028982 0.580472 0.380051
46 -0.095616 0.082872 0.644587 0.317199
47 -0.037294 0.031964 0.524916 0.458974
48 -0.076518 0.068840 0.655618 0.331308
49 -0.054272 0.047820 0.709346 0.260562
50 -0.053456 0.046751 0.669541 0.309933
51 -0.046273 0.036282 0.756639 0.204065
52 -0.048010 0.034720 0.611419 0.349515
53 -0.012532 0.008657 0.350036 0.643058
54 -0.078422 0.066668 0.783014 0.191398
55 -0.023670 0.008454 0.597900 0.362290
56 -0.060387 0.051341 0.599978 0.380954
57 -0.062986 0.054194 0.668679 0.295626
58 -0.062191 0.055443 0.744792 0.231844
59 -0.108243 0.094961 0.750525 0.220175
... ... ... ... ...
3112 -0.069453 0.042102 0.754293 0.201902
3113 -0.131925 0.111623 0.806812 0.159302
3114 -0.154722 0.150478 0.842515 0.134812
3115 -0.160019 0.126726 0.798970 0.160443
3116 -0.152221 0.132206 0.774558 0.176873
3117 -0.093188 0.059698 0.706330 0.239036
3118 -0.074243 0.068621 0.842727 0.131479
3119 -0.044317 -0.026187 0.363671 0.551068
3120 -0.048004 -0.010540 0.684907 0.258919
3121 -0.049941 0.024208 0.701124 0.240335
3122 -0.120130 0.068504 0.659909 0.278837
3123 -0.071261 0.040359 0.697763 0.242477
3124 -0.044625 0.037413 0.704171 0.236930
3125 -0.063236 0.016647 0.579960 0.351380
3126 -0.091335 0.048402 0.648272 0.290410
3127 -0.051828 0.005773 0.733399 0.218125
3128 -0.030914 0.002245 0.638343 0.295732
3129 -0.073100 0.011108 0.593568 0.339556
3130 -0.018544 -0.026098 0.698584 0.241677
3131 -0.077212 0.033639 0.658126 0.280856
3132 -0.069063 0.054453 0.685545 0.254448
3133 -0.028747 -0.015654 0.632070 0.304426
3134 -0.110567 0.073739 0.630632 0.302879
3135 -0.048096 0.001863 0.631960 0.303194
3136 -0.026978 -0.007209 0.652628 0.281005
3137 -0.090909 0.047219 0.665093 0.272789
3138 0.053672 -0.105847 0.425316 0.494972
3139 -0.043333 -0.018139 0.685461 0.256831
3140 -0.059814 0.013189 0.632028 0.305111
3141 -0.038811 0.020294 0.717167 0.226544
Trump_Deviation Clinton_Deviation
30 -0.113499 0.100924
31 -0.186766 0.163849
32 -0.004882 0.008090
33 -0.077434 0.071811
34 -0.108870 0.092791
35 0.202980 -0.178688
36 -0.040663 0.035449
37 -0.058423 0.058920
38 0.018838 -0.014944
39 -0.077623 0.059290
40 -0.097084 0.083973
41 0.025054 -0.025066
42 -0.020648 0.011940
43 -0.048534 0.040559
44 -0.060499 0.049106
45 -0.190990 0.175595
46 -0.034289 0.020927
47 0.003289 -0.010077
48 0.009246 -0.009492
49 -0.126537 0.110164
50 -0.051989 0.043938
51 -0.121466 0.104006
52 -0.129732 0.112742
53 0.041227 -0.041725
54 -0.051878 0.050249
55 -0.150481 0.133704
56 -0.075891 0.072139
57 -0.070429 0.057553
58 -0.073290 0.066153
59 -0.041277 0.036402
... ... ...
3112 -0.005075 0.009854
3113 0.072263 -0.061785
3114 0.069588 -0.052667
3115 0.078408 -0.057292
3116 -0.015068 0.017951
3117 -0.007534 0.002849
3118 0.006897 -0.004390
3119 -0.099240 0.131580
3120 -0.115841 0.141967
3121 -0.178608 0.166513
3122 -0.051220 0.072546
3123 -0.144728 0.140523
3124 -0.183392 0.165066
3125 -0.095069 0.097496
3126 -0.125730 0.128532
3127 -0.031493 0.060334
3128 -0.161151 0.149031
3129 -0.028388 0.049858
3130 -0.108632 0.110098
3131 -0.065814 0.078567
3132 -0.174902 0.165782
3133 -0.127462 0.131199
3134 -0.139996 0.141669
3135 -0.091661 0.096949
3136 -0.140717 0.131133
3137 -0.064335 0.078743
3138 0.103372 -0.105635
3139 -0.078726 0.107570
3140 -0.151552 0.161908
3141 -0.152059 0.138361
[3112 rows x 81 columns]
In [309]:
print(raw.shape)
(3112, 81)
In [310]:
print(list(raw.columns))
['X', 'combined_fips', 'votes_dem_2016', 'votes_gop_2016', 'total_votes_2016', 'Clinton', 'Trump', 'diff_2016', 'per_point_diff_2016', 'state_abbr', 'county_name', 'FIPS', 'total_votes_2012', 'votes_dem_2012', 'votes_gop_2012', 'county_fips', 'state_fips', 'Obama', 'Romney', 'diff_2012', 'per_point_diff_2012', 'fips', 'area_name', 'state_abbreviation', 'population2014', 'population2010', 'population_change', 'POP010210', 'AGE135214', 'AGE295214', 'age65plus', 'SEX255214', 'White', 'Black', 'RHI325214', 'RHI425214', 'RHI525214', 'RHI625214', 'Hispanic', 'RHI825214', 'POP715213', 'POP645213', 'NonEnglish', 'Edu_highschool', 'Edu_batchelors', 'VET605213', 'LFE305213', 'HSG010214', 'HSG445213', 'HSG096213', 'HSG495213', 'HSD410213', 'HSD310213', 'Income', 'INC110213', 'Poverty', 'BZA010213', 'BZA110213', 'BZA115213', 'NES010213', 'SBO001207', 'SBO315207', 'SBO115207', 'SBO215207', 'SBO515207', 'SBO415207', 'SBO015207', 'MAN450207', 'WTN220207', 'RTN130207', 'RTN131207', 'AFN120207', 'BPS030214', 'LND110210', 'Density', 'Clinton_Obama', 'Trump_Romney', 'Trump_Prediction', 'Clinton_Prediction', 'Trump_Deviation', 'Clinton_Deviation']
In [354]:
raw.columns = ['X', 'combined_fips', 'votes_dem_16', 'votes_gop_16', 'tot_votes_16',
'Clinton', 'Trump', 'diff_216', 'per_point_diff_16', 'State', 'county',
'FIPS', 'tot_votes_12', 'votes_dem_12', 'votes_gop_12', 'county_fips', 'state_fips',
'Obama', 'Romney', 'diff_12', 'per_point_diff_12', 'fips', 'County', 'state', 'pop2014est',
'pop2010est', 'pop_change%', 'Pop2010', '-5', '-18', '65+', 'female', 'White', 'Black', 'Native',
'Asian', 'Pacific', 'Multi', 'Hispanic', 'White-nh', 'liveinhouse1yr', 'foreignborn', 'NonEnglish',
'highschool', 'bachelors', 'Veterans', 'worktraveltime', 'Houseunits', 'Homeownrate', 'Houseunits%',
'medvalhouse', 'tot_households', 'persperhouse', 'Percap_Inc', 'Med_house_inc', 'Poverty',
'nonfarmestab', 'nonfarmemp', 'nonfarm%', 'Nonempestab', 'TOT_firms', 'Black_own_firms',
'Nat_own_firms', 'Asian_own_firms', 'Pac_own_firms', 'Hisp_own_firms', 'Wom_own_firms',
'Manufact_ship', 'merch_whole', 'tot_ret_sales', 'Retsalepercap', 'Accomandfoodsales',
'Buildingpermits', 'Landarea', 'Density', 'Clinton_Obama', 'Trump_Romney', 'Trump_Pred',
'Clinton_Pred', 'Trump_Dev', 'Clinton_Dev']
In [312]:
print(list(raw.columns))
['X', 'combined_fips', 'votes_dem_16', 'votes_gop_16', 'tot_votes_16', 'Clinton', 'Trump', 'diff_216', 'per_point_diff_16', 'State', 'county', 'FIPS', 'tot_votes_12', 'votes_dem_12', 'votes_gop_12', 'county_fips', 'state_fips', 'Obama', 'Romney', 'diff_12', 'per_point_diff_12', 'fips', 'County', 'state', 'pop2014est', 'pop2010est', 'pop_change%', 'Pop2010', '-5', '-18', '65+', 'female', 'White', 'Black', 'Native', 'Asian', 'Pacific', 'Multi', 'Hispanic', 'White-nh', 'liveinhouse1yr', 'foreignborn', 'NonEnglish', 'highschool', 'bachelors', 'Veterans', 'worktraveltime', 'Houseunits', 'Homeownrate', 'Houseunits%', 'medvalhouse', 'tot_households', 'persperhouse', 'Percap_Inc', 'Med_house_inc', 'Poverty', 'nonfarmestab', 'nonfarmemp', 'nonfarm%', 'Nonempestab', 'TOT_firms', 'Black_own_firms', 'Nat_own_firms', 'Asian_own_firms', 'Pac_own_firms', 'Hisp_own_firms', 'Wom_own_firms', 'Manufact_ship', 'merch_whole', 'tot_ret_sales', 'Retsalepercap', 'Accomandfoodsales', 'Buildingpermits', 'Landarea', 'Density', 'Clinton_Obama', 'Trump_Romney', 'Trump_Pred', 'Clinton_Pred', 'Trump_Dev', 'Clinton_Dev']
Once the columns were understandable, I eliminated the columns that I knew for sure I wasn't going to use by deleting them from the data frame. I set the index to county because it's the main factor in the analysis.
In [361]:
#need to eliminate non-swing states
del raw ["state"]
del raw["county"]
del raw['X']
del raw['combined_fips']
del raw ['county_fips']
del raw ['state_fips']
del raw['fips']
The below document alows us to see which counties changed from one election cycle to another as well keep the data for which party held the county
In [362]:
raw["winner16"] = "GOP"
raw.loc[raw["Clinton"] > raw["Trump"], "winner16"] = "Dem"
raw["winner12"] = "GOP"
raw.loc[raw["Obama"] > raw["Romney"], "winner12"] = "Dem"
raw['change'] = "No Change"
raw.loc[raw["winner16"] != raw["winner12"], "change"] = raw["winner16"] + "change"
raw.loc[raw["winner16"] == raw["winner12"], "change"] = raw["winner12"]
raw.head()
Out[362]:
votes_dem_16
votes_gop_16
tot_votes_16
Clinton
Trump
diff_216
per_point_diff_16
State
FIPS
tot_votes_12
...
Density
Clinton_Obama
Trump_Romney
Trump_Pred
Clinton_Pred
Trump_Dev
Clinton_Dev
winner16
winner12
change
30
5908
18110
24661
0.239569
0.734358
12202
-0.494789
AL
1001
23909
...
91.8
-0.026189
0.008021
0.620859
0.340493
-0.113499
0.100924
GOP
GOP
GOP
31
18409
72780
94090
0.195653
0.773515
54371
-0.577862
AL
1003
84988
...
114.6
-0.020013
-0.000383
0.586749
0.359502
-0.186766
0.163849
GOP
GOP
GOP
32
4848
5431
10390
0.466603
0.522714
583
-0.056112
AL
1005
11459
...
31.0
-0.045920
0.039339
0.517832
0.474693
-0.004882
0.008090
GOP
Dem
GOPchange
33
1874
6733
8748
0.214220
0.769662
4859
-0.555441
AL
1007
8391
...
36.8
-0.047965
0.038998
0.692227
0.286031
-0.077434
0.071811
GOP
GOP
GOP
34
2150
22808
25384
0.084699
0.898519
20658
-0.813820
AL
1009
23980
...
88.9
-0.038779
0.033590
0.789649
0.177490
-0.108870
0.092791
GOP
GOP
GOP
5 rows × 77 columns
The next step was to seperate the swing states from the non-swing states. Initially, the plan was to use a function and create a seperate dataframe for each swing state and then merge them together. it created the right dataframes but didn't store them properly, as an alternative i just created the dataframes indepedently.
In [363]:
#drop non swing state rows
def seperate(state):
state = raw[raw.State == state]
return state
swingstate = ['FL', 'CO', 'PA', 'NH', 'NV', 'NC','OH', 'WI', 'MI','IA', 'VA']
for item in swingstate:
print(seperate(item))
votes_dem_16 votes_gop_16 tot_votes_16 Clinton Trump diff_216 \
321 75370 46584 127827 0.589625 0.364430 28786
322 2112 10294 12634 0.167168 0.814785 8182
323 21689 62010 87151 0.248867 0.711524 40321
324 2924 8913 12098 0.241693 0.736733 5989
325 119525 181620 314337 0.380245 0.577788 62095
326 546956 258521 822837 0.664720 0.314183 288435
327 1236 4647 6067 0.203725 0.765947 3411
328 33421 60196 96323 0.346968 0.624939 26775
329 22765 54377 79590 0.286028 0.683214 31612
330 27768 74898 106363 0.261068 0.704173 47130
331 60941 105297 170505 0.357415 0.617560 44356
332 7599 20359 28696 0.264810 0.709472 12760
333 3761 6744 10761 0.349503 0.626708 2983
334 1270 5822 7202 0.176340 0.808387 4552
335 203627 210061 428734 0.474950 0.489956 6434
336 57114 88370 151609 0.376719 0.582881 31256
337 21985 33804 57413 0.382927 0.588787 11819
338 1738 4119 6003 0.289522 0.686157 2381
339 14994 6721 22079 0.679107 0.304407 8273
340 1457 6740 8418 0.173081 0.800665 5283
341 1271 2996 4355 0.291848 0.687945 1725
342 1715 5320 7279 0.235609 0.730870 3605
343 1899 3439 5451 0.348376 0.630893 1540
344 2147 5238 7577 0.283358 0.691303 3091
345 4610 6192 11106 0.415091 0.557536 1582
346 31818 59029 93878 0.338929 0.628784 27211
347 14901 29509 45589 0.326855 0.647283 14608
348 306422 265928 595072 0.514933 0.446884 40494
349 852 7476 8506 0.100165 0.878909 6624
350 28997 48564 79897 0.362930 0.607833 19567
.. ... ... ... ... ... ...
358 651 2542 3295 0.197572 0.771472 1891
359 3526 4849 8503 0.414677 0.570269 1323
360 71066 101681 178521 0.398082 0.569574 30615
361 61958 107710 174485 0.355091 0.617302 45752
362 30158 53182 85741 0.351734 0.620263 23024
363 623006 333666 978670 0.636584 0.340938 289340
364 18949 21885 42434 0.446552 0.515742 2936
365 10849 34221 46537 0.233126 0.735350 23372
366 23711 71788 100657 0.235562 0.713194 48077
367 3953 9342 13632 0.289979 0.685299 5389
368 329579 195091 545800 0.603846 0.357440 134488
369 85287 50252 139981 0.609276 0.358992 35035
370 371411 270762 657235 0.565111 0.411971 100649
371 89998 141943 240814 0.373724 0.589430 51945
372 233327 238746 491520 0.474705 0.485730 5419
373 117182 157216 283828 0.412863 0.553913 40034
374 9920 21873 32652 0.303810 0.669882 11953
375 18398 65126 87432 0.210426 0.744876 46728
376 97676 124098 228509 0.427449 0.543077 26422
377 105611 109265 224377 0.470685 0.486971 3654
378 43037 88633 136392 0.315539 0.649840 45596
379 66812 70248 140731 0.474750 0.499165 3436
380 22631 52722 76649 0.295255 0.687837 30091
381 3955 14281 18675 0.211780 0.764712 10326
382 2149 6923 9279 0.231598 0.746093 4774
383 1014 4567 5693 0.178113 0.802213 3553
384 108793 142763 260304 0.417946 0.548447 33970
385 4348 10507 15344 0.283368 0.684763 6159
386 6861 25695 33559 0.204446 0.765666 18834
387 2261 8630 11144 0.202889 0.774408 6369
per_point_diff_16 State FIPS tot_votes_12 ... Density \
321 0.225195 FL 12001 120318 ... 282.7
322 -0.647618 FL 12003 11366 ... 46.3
323 -0.462657 FL 12005 79834 ... 222.6
324 -0.495041 FL 12007 11631 ... 97.0
325 -0.197543 FL 12009 285504 ... 535.0
326 0.350537 FL 12011 755166 ... 1444.9
327 -0.562222 FL 12013 6152 ... 25.8
328 -0.277971 FL 12015 84664 ... 235.2
329 -0.397186 FL 12017 73923 ... 242.8
330 -0.443105 FL 12019 96549 ... 315.8
331 -0.260145 FL 12021 149080 ... 160.9
332 -0.444661 FL 12023 27163 ... 84.7
333 -0.277205 FL 12027 9863 ... 54.7
334 -0.632047 FL 12029 6941 ... 23.3
335 -0.015007 FL 12031 411702 ... 1133.9
336 -0.206162 FL 12033 148430 ... 453.4
337 -0.205859 FL 12035 50589 ... 197.1
338 -0.396635 FL 12037 5474 ... 21.6
339 0.374700 FL 12039 22495 ... 89.8
340 -0.627584 FL 12041 7908 ... 48.4
341 -0.396096 FL 12043 3989 ... 16.0
342 -0.495260 FL 12045 7107 ... 28.1
343 -0.282517 FL 12047 5404 ... 28.8
344 -0.407945 FL 12049 7222 ... 43.5
345 -0.142446 FL 12051 10185 ... 34.0
346 -0.289855 FL 12053 83593 ... 365.6
347 -0.320428 FL 12055 42440 ... 97.2
348 0.068049 FL 12057 541503 ... 1204.9
349 -0.778744 FL 12059 8274 ... 41.6
350 -0.244903 FL 12061 71445 ... 274.5
.. ... ... ... ... ... ...
358 -0.573900 FL 12077 3284 ... 10.0
359 -0.155592 FL 12079 8712 ... 27.6
360 -0.171492 FL 12081 153451 ... 434.5
361 -0.262212 FL 12083 161368 ... 209.1
362 -0.268530 FL 12085 78860 ... 269.2
363 0.295646 FL 12086 877245 ... 1315.5
364 -0.069190 FL 12087 39045 ... 74.3
365 -0.502224 FL 12089 40523 ... 113.0
366 -0.477632 FL 12091 94739 ... 194.4
367 -0.395320 FL 12093 12321 ... 52.0
368 0.246405 FL 12095 467385 ... 1268.5
369 0.250284 FL 12097 108647 ... 202.4
370 0.153140 FL 12099 600341 ... 670.2
371 -0.215706 FL 12101 213358 ... 622.2
372 -0.011025 FL 12103 457484 ... 3347.5
373 -0.141050 FL 12105 248658 ... 334.9
374 -0.366073 FL 12107 31323 ... 102.2
375 -0.534450 FL 12113 76816 ... 149.6
376 -0.115628 FL 12115 207434 ... 682.6
377 -0.016285 FL 12117 208605 ... 1367.0
378 -0.334301 FL 12109 114733 ... 316.4
379 -0.024415 FL 12111 123026 ... 485.7
380 -0.392582 FL 12119 60471 ... 170.8
381 -0.552932 FL 12121 17627 ... 60.3
382 -0.514495 FL 12123 9117 ... 21.6
383 -0.624100 FL 12125 5393 ... 63.8
384 -0.130501 FL 12127 234483 ... 449.2
385 -0.401395 FL 12129 14656 ... 50.8
386 -0.561221 FL 12131 28480 ... 53.0
387 -0.571518 FL 12133 10998 ... 42.7
Clinton_Obama Trump_Romney Trump_Pred Clinton_Pred Trump_Dev \
321 0.010875 -0.040871 0.336634 0.598176 -0.027796
322 -0.036070 0.025238 0.739175 0.230227 -0.075611
323 -0.027168 -0.000742 0.618692 0.332602 -0.092832
324 -0.044095 0.030345 0.729754 0.250544 -0.006979
325 -0.050474 0.019932 0.561711 0.381513 -0.016077
326 -0.007225 -0.008570 0.380616 0.568839 0.066434
327 -0.066756 0.056259 0.742949 0.234175 -0.022998
328 -0.077014 0.058134 0.653356 0.293517 0.028417
329 -0.098872 0.079112 0.703400 0.246496 0.020186
330 -0.005584 -0.020806 0.591457 0.354182 -0.112716
331 0.010769 -0.029798 0.515859 0.425797 -0.101701
332 -0.046716 0.031012 0.650074 0.313376 -0.059397
333 -0.073695 0.060247 0.634327 0.333383 0.007619
334 -0.082701 0.080538 0.779083 0.190969 -0.029304
335 -0.002719 -0.023893 0.443787 0.512087 -0.046169
336 -0.015075 -0.014512 0.513666 0.439253 -0.069215
337 -0.075750 0.055746 0.569060 0.373380 -0.019727
338 -0.047526 0.033983 0.681290 0.285827 -0.004867
339 -0.021849 0.009764 0.428503 0.558729 0.124096
340 -0.065285 0.052436 0.734723 0.225792 -0.065942
341 -0.110007 0.100329 0.619661 0.340394 -0.068284
342 -0.047633 0.028041 0.680260 0.291670 -0.050609
343 -0.063541 0.050397 0.608693 0.374316 -0.022200
344 -0.057407 0.041344 0.671735 0.302018 -0.019568
345 -0.051379 0.031763 0.617464 0.356986 0.059928
346 -0.113154 0.091586 0.679606 0.269411 0.050822
347 -0.053611 0.036727 0.645144 0.311567 -0.002140
348 -0.013519 -0.014617 0.439121 0.504773 -0.007762
349 -0.052603 0.042675 0.749002 0.220809 -0.129907
350 -0.021744 -0.000202 0.577255 0.369819 -0.030578
.. ... ... ... ... ...
358 -0.089273 0.070802 0.662117 0.312560 -0.109355
359 -0.064432 0.056725 0.585183 0.397385 0.014914
360 -0.035125 0.011637 0.558910 0.385717 -0.010665
361 -0.059012 0.040757 0.620682 0.332800 0.003379
362 -0.029917 0.009307 0.567061 0.374365 -0.053203
363 0.020136 -0.038206 0.370879 0.574119 0.029941
364 -0.050105 0.023131 0.540645 0.395698 0.024902
365 -0.019792 -0.003144 0.647443 0.299080 -0.087908
366 -0.011326 -0.027187 0.547919 0.392659 -0.165275
367 -0.104144 0.090786 0.705457 0.270117 0.020158
368 0.017120 -0.047059 0.391636 0.552239 0.034196
369 -0.009251 -0.014521 0.494732 0.445901 0.135741
370 -0.016921 0.000110 0.446815 0.499407 0.034843
371 -0.086291 0.062921 0.634869 0.311420 0.045439
372 -0.047643 0.019720 0.538597 0.408688 0.052867
373 -0.048051 0.024809 0.587130 0.369309 0.033217
374 -0.068632 0.052892 0.659715 0.307733 -0.010167
375 -0.020736 -0.012375 0.608332 0.336101 -0.136544
376 -0.030957 0.010431 0.564531 0.372905 0.021454
377 0.008400 -0.040049 0.447489 0.488667 -0.039481
378 0.009132 -0.034270 0.491764 0.442438 -0.158076
379 -0.060657 0.042335 0.542528 0.411304 0.043363
380 -0.027528 0.015713 0.628529 0.321323 -0.059307
381 -0.057636 0.045815 0.690965 0.272806 -0.073747
382 -0.071243 0.060670 0.701674 0.277400 -0.044419
383 -0.070171 0.064220 0.702042 0.281766 -0.100171
384 -0.071284 0.047460 0.594677 0.352470 0.046230
385 -0.069593 0.051029 0.642822 0.311917 -0.041941
386 -0.029578 0.011348 0.629359 0.321337 -0.136307
387 -0.053521 0.043639 0.693702 0.273457 -0.080706
Clinton_Dev winner16 winner12 change
321 0.008551 Dem Dem Dem
322 0.063059 GOP GOP GOP
323 0.083735 GOP GOP GOP
324 0.008851 GOP GOP GOP
325 0.001268 GOP GOP GOP
326 -0.095881 Dem Dem Dem
327 0.030450 GOP GOP GOP
328 -0.053451 GOP GOP GOP
329 -0.039532 GOP GOP GOP
330 0.093113 GOP GOP GOP
331 0.068382 GOP GOP GOP
332 0.048565 GOP GOP GOP
333 -0.016120 GOP GOP GOP
334 0.014629 GOP GOP GOP
335 0.037138 GOP GOP GOP
336 0.062534 GOP GOP GOP
337 -0.009548 GOP GOP GOP
338 -0.003695 GOP GOP GOP
339 -0.120378 Dem Dem Dem
340 0.052711 GOP GOP GOP
341 0.048546 GOP GOP GOP
342 0.056061 GOP GOP GOP
343 0.025940 GOP GOP GOP
344 0.018661 GOP GOP GOP
345 -0.058105 GOP GOP GOP
346 -0.069518 GOP GOP GOP
347 -0.015289 GOP GOP GOP
348 -0.010160 Dem Dem Dem
349 0.120645 GOP GOP GOP
350 0.006890 GOP GOP GOP
.. ... ... ... ...
358 0.114988 GOP GOP GOP
359 -0.017293 GOP GOP GOP
360 -0.012365 GOP GOP GOP
361 -0.022291 GOP GOP GOP
362 0.022632 GOP GOP GOP
363 -0.062465 Dem Dem Dem
364 -0.050854 GOP Dem GOPchange
365 0.065954 GOP GOP GOP
366 0.157096 GOP GOP GOP
367 -0.019862 GOP GOP GOP
368 -0.051606 Dem Dem Dem
369 -0.163375 Dem Dem Dem
370 -0.065705 Dem Dem Dem
371 -0.062304 GOP GOP GOP
372 -0.066017 GOP Dem GOPchange
373 -0.043554 GOP GOP GOP
374 0.003923 GOP GOP GOP
375 0.125675 GOP GOP GOP
376 -0.054545 GOP GOP GOP
377 0.017981 GOP GOP GOP
378 0.126899 GOP GOP GOP
379 -0.063446 GOP Dem GOPchange
380 0.026068 GOP GOP GOP
381 0.061026 GOP GOP GOP
382 0.045802 GOP GOP GOP
383 0.103653 GOP GOP GOP
384 -0.065476 GOP GOP GOP
385 0.028549 GOP GOP GOP
386 0.116891 GOP GOP GOP
387 0.070568 GOP GOP GOP
[67 rows x 77 columns]
votes_dem_16 votes_gop_16 tot_votes_16 Clinton Trump diff_216 \
245 86471 73807 175125 0.493767 0.421453 12664
246 3168 3031 6897 0.459330 0.439466 137
247 148365 109638 281658 0.526756 0.389259 38727
248 2489 4234 7290 0.341427 0.580796 1745
249 278 1716 2107 0.131941 0.814428 1438
250 581 1166 1892 0.307082 0.616279 585
251 124715 38766 176735 0.705661 0.219345 85949
252 19530 14272 37342 0.523004 0.382197 5258
253 4773 5283 10999 0.433949 0.480316 510
254 127 905 1076 0.118030 0.841078 778
255 2585 2426 5532 0.467281 0.438539 159
256 1753 1885 3970 0.441562 0.474811 132
257 1109 581 1820 0.609341 0.319231 528
258 336 1069 1511 0.222369 0.707478 733
259 797 2059 3064 0.260117 0.671997 1262
260 4048 11584 16661 0.242963 0.695276 7536
261 174611 43637 232291 0.751691 0.187855 130974
262 227 936 1230 0.184553 0.760976 709
263 67045 100178 182918 0.366530 0.547666 33133
264 12652 8153 22611 0.559551 0.360577 4499
265 3056 11536 15689 0.194786 0.735292 8480
266 105807 176506 313273 0.337747 0.563426 70699
267 5275 15066 21880 0.241088 0.688574 9791
268 11205 13071 26328 0.425593 0.496468 1866
269 1634 1564 3574 0.457191 0.437605 70
270 3319 4467 8513 0.389874 0.524727 1148
271 5068 3250 9299 0.545005 0.349500 1818
272 197 339 589 0.334465 0.575552 142
273 1631 1875 3772 0.432397 0.497084 244
274 171 628 862 0.198376 0.728538 457
.. ... ... ... ... ... ...
279 15300 12471 30722 0.498014 0.405931 2829
280 92170 82624 193897 0.475355 0.426123 9546
281 2614 3656 6693 0.390557 0.546242 1042
282 399 1873 2402 0.166112 0.779767 1474
283 1843 7272 9702 0.189961 0.749536 5429
284 20958 48129 74876 0.279903 0.642783 27171
285 237 344 652 0.363497 0.527607 107
286 874 5293 6510 0.134255 0.813057 4419
287 3920 7771 12706 0.308516 0.611601 3851
288 5438 14303 21070 0.258092 0.678832 8865
289 3128 8104 11888 0.263122 0.681696 4976
290 1719 2988 5038 0.341207 0.593092 1269
291 1690 1337 3287 0.514147 0.406754 353
292 3351 6053 10245 0.327086 0.590825 2702
293 436 1791 2332 0.186964 0.768010 1355
294 7239 2522 10387 0.696929 0.242804 4717
295 1173 3508 4978 0.235637 0.704701 2335
296 27945 27746 60112 0.464882 0.461572 199
297 433 2782 3436 0.126019 0.809662 2349
298 1985 3060 5488 0.361698 0.557580 1075
299 7487 5149 13772 0.543639 0.373875 2338
300 1345 1109 2707 0.496860 0.409679 236
301 265 215 506 0.523715 0.424901 50
302 2960 1030 4311 0.686616 0.238924 1930
303 267 1015 1364 0.195748 0.744135 748
304 9502 5064 16061 0.591619 0.315298 4438
305 3547 9580 14203 0.249736 0.674505 6033
306 289 2284 2708 0.106721 0.843427 1995
307 45869 75882 133790 0.342843 0.567172 30013
308 701 3755 4664 0.150300 0.805103 3054
per_point_diff_16 State FIPS tot_votes_12 ... Density \
245 0.072314 CO 8001 161495 ... 378.2
246 0.019864 CO 8003 6671 ... 21.4
247 0.137497 CO 8005 254746 ... 716.7
248 -0.239369 CO 8007 6646 ... 8.9
249 -0.682487 CO 8009 2096 ... 1.5
250 -0.309197 CO 8011 1881 ... 4.3
251 0.486316 CO 8013 173207 ... 405.6
252 0.140807 CO 8014 32191 ... 1691.9
253 -0.046368 CO 8015 10217 ... 17.6
254 -0.723048 CO 8017 1045 ... 1.0
255 0.028742 CO 8019 5610 ... 23.0
256 -0.033249 CO 8021 4027 ... 6.4
257 0.290110 CO 8023 1804 ... 2.9
258 -0.485109 CO 8025 1502 ... 7.4
259 -0.411880 CO 8027 2697 ... 5.8
260 -0.452314 CO 8029 15681 ... 27.1
261 0.563836 CO 8031 285564 ... 3922.6
262 -0.576423 CO 8033 1218 ... 1.9
263 -0.181136 CO 8035 150160 ... 339.7
264 0.198974 CO 8037 22374 ... 31.0
265 -0.540506 CO 8039 13993 ... 12.5
266 -0.225679 CO 8041 275604 ... 292.6
267 -0.447486 CO 8043 20258 ... 30.5
268 -0.070875 CO 8045 23695 ... 19.1
269 0.019586 CO 8047 3271 ... 36.3
270 -0.134853 CO 8049 7961 ... 8.0
271 0.195505 CO 8051 7912 ... 4.7
272 -0.241087 CO 8053 598 ... 0.8
273 -0.064687 CO 8055 3623 ... 4.2
274 -0.530162 CO 8057 848 ... 0.9
.. ... ... ... ... ... ...
279 0.092084 CO 8067 28475 ... 30.3
280 0.049232 CO 8069 161823 ... 115.4
281 -0.155685 CO 8071 6532 ... 3.2
282 -0.613655 CO 8073 2248 ... 2.1
283 -0.559575 CO 8075 9030 ... 12.4
284 -0.362880 CO 8077 69033 ... 44.1
285 -0.164110 CO 8079 650 ... 0.8
286 -0.678802 CO 8081 6042 ... 2.9
287 -0.303085 CO 8083 12232 ... 12.6
288 -0.420740 CO 8085 19054 ... 18.4
289 -0.418573 CO 8087 10478 ... 22.0
290 -0.251886 CO 8089 8039 ... 14.9
291 0.107393 CO 8091 3183 ... 8.2
292 -0.263738 CO 8093 9054 ... 7.4
293 -0.581046 CO 8095 2265 ... 6.5
294 0.454125 CO 8097 9779 ... 17.7
295 -0.469064 CO 8099 4809 ... 7.7
296 0.003310 CO 8101 73306 ... 66.7
297 -0.683644 CO 8103 3311 ... 2.1
298 -0.195882 CO 8105 5453 ... 13.1
299 0.169765 CO 8107 13038 ... 10.0
300 0.087181 CO 8109 2796 ... 1.9
301 0.098814 CO 8111 506 ... 1.8
302 0.447692 CO 8113 4215 ... 5.7
303 -0.548387 CO 8115 1337 ... 4.3
304 0.276322 CO 8117 15038 ... 46.0
305 -0.424769 CO 8119 12144 ... 41.9
306 -0.736706 CO 8121 2567 ... 1.9
307 -0.224329 CO 8123 112695 ... 63.4
308 -0.654803 CO 8125 4481 ... 4.2
Clinton_Obama Trump_Romney Trump_Pred Clinton_Pred Trump_Dev \
245 -0.068745 0.009484 0.574052 0.370770 0.152599
246 -0.107601 0.035779 0.464092 0.462289 0.024625
247 -0.004884 -0.059156 0.416054 0.517255 0.026795
248 -0.055353 0.004359 0.544694 0.386303 -0.036102
249 -0.088479 0.073016 0.691233 0.253411 -0.123195
250 -0.106527 0.056470 0.669959 0.284330 0.053680
251 0.010048 -0.060817 0.328393 0.590806 0.109048
252 0.005685 -0.076472 0.425700 0.500042 0.043503
253 -0.052202 -0.004072 0.579151 0.358418 0.098835
254 -0.036994 0.020025 0.698733 0.249380 -0.142345
255 -0.074786 0.014119 0.516598 0.408988 0.078059
256 -0.099784 0.029318 0.537052 0.395965 0.062240
257 -0.120704 0.075328 0.502670 0.436061 0.183439
258 -0.133822 0.092299 0.612703 0.344370 -0.094776
259 -0.059497 0.013488 0.562747 0.366554 -0.109250
260 -0.046687 0.008968 0.669238 0.272288 -0.026038
261 0.017148 -0.056416 0.337766 0.599705 0.149911
262 -0.085562 0.072962 0.689799 0.252886 -0.071176
263 0.006295 -0.077867 0.393975 0.527506 -0.153691
264 -0.003514 -0.055844 0.421313 0.507545 0.060736
265 -0.058340 0.010072 0.607049 0.323118 -0.128243
266 -0.043195 -0.030974 0.467243 0.461722 -0.096183
267 -0.086881 0.042558 0.685288 0.265098 -0.003286
268 -0.038176 -0.016679 0.589548 0.351686 0.093081
269 -0.109608 0.034059 0.592457 0.339704 0.154852
270 -0.059190 0.003561 0.570024 0.359966 0.045297
271 -0.031714 -0.043068 0.375822 0.545565 0.026322
272 -0.046806 -0.013077 0.544594 0.389145 -0.030958
273 -0.091203 0.051321 0.504582 0.428118 0.007499
274 -0.056341 0.020991 0.680514 0.263162 -0.048024
.. ... ... ... ... ...
279 -0.030976 -0.034947 0.466367 0.457882 0.060436
280 -0.038187 -0.034893 0.453955 0.469909 0.027832
281 -0.111892 0.070890 0.587464 0.349052 0.041222
282 -0.072767 0.039998 0.709086 0.249399 -0.070681
283 -0.106274 0.071352 0.650353 0.290290 -0.099183
284 -0.045275 -0.010340 0.605882 0.330818 -0.036901
285 -0.084195 -0.001623 0.549049 0.379601 0.021442
286 -0.079416 0.049071 0.701833 0.240073 -0.111223
287 -0.058227 0.008919 0.536871 0.393152 -0.074730
288 -0.049035 0.007635 0.610624 0.330506 -0.068209
289 -0.095820 0.065071 0.670843 0.283360 -0.010852
290 -0.102381 0.056334 0.572647 0.362355 -0.020446
291 -0.001091 -0.055075 0.477273 0.445273 0.070519
292 -0.083892 0.029195 0.580582 0.348984 -0.010243
293 -0.072639 0.045273 0.656337 0.285473 -0.111673
294 0.017105 -0.057943 0.380866 0.539538 0.138063
295 -0.075862 0.039282 0.641134 0.305181 -0.063566
296 -0.089288 0.038373 0.524722 0.404706 0.063151
297 -0.043417 0.001145 0.625324 0.309946 -0.184339
298 -0.083561 0.027230 0.556152 0.377858 -0.001428
299 -0.023089 -0.037308 0.458668 0.464199 0.084794
300 -0.133326 0.074557 0.552751 0.390837 0.143073
301 -0.001976 0.005929 0.581218 0.344589 0.156317
302 -0.015875 -0.032488 0.402430 0.518316 0.163507
303 -0.117640 0.085197 0.683737 0.258359 -0.060398
304 -0.018103 -0.050110 0.417380 0.502290 0.102082
305 -0.070916 0.023237 0.603238 0.331607 -0.071267
306 -0.072866 0.041323 0.688484 0.252019 -0.154943
307 -0.077921 0.013909 0.573243 0.365401 0.006071
308 -0.061706 0.038979 0.690967 0.252183 -0.114136
Clinton_Dev winner16 winner12 change
245 -0.122998 Dem Dem Dem
246 0.002959 Dem Dem Dem
247 -0.009501 Dem Dem Dem
248 0.044876 GOP GOP GOP
249 0.121470 GOP GOP GOP
250 -0.022753 GOP GOP GOP
251 -0.114855 Dem Dem Dem
252 -0.022962 Dem Dem Dem
253 -0.075530 GOP Dem GOPchange
254 0.131351 GOP GOP GOP
255 -0.058293 Dem Dem Dem
256 -0.045597 GOP Dem GOPchange
257 -0.173280 Dem Dem Dem
258 0.122000 GOP GOP GOP
259 0.106436 GOP GOP GOP
260 0.029326 GOP GOP GOP
261 -0.151985 Dem Dem Dem
262 0.068333 GOP GOP GOP
263 0.160975 GOP GOP GOP
264 -0.052006 Dem Dem Dem
265 0.128332 GOP GOP GOP
266 0.123975 GOP GOP GOP
267 0.024011 GOP GOP GOP
268 -0.073906 GOP GOP GOP
269 -0.117487 Dem Dem Dem
270 -0.029909 GOP GOP GOP
271 0.000560 Dem Dem Dem
272 0.054680 GOP GOP GOP
273 -0.004279 GOP Dem GOPchange
274 0.064786 GOP GOP GOP
.. ... ... ... ...
279 -0.040133 Dem Dem Dem
280 -0.005447 Dem Dem Dem
281 -0.041506 GOP Dem GOPchange
282 0.083287 GOP GOP GOP
283 0.100329 GOP GOP GOP
284 0.050915 GOP GOP GOP
285 0.016104 GOP GOP GOP
286 0.105818 GOP GOP GOP
287 0.084636 GOP GOP GOP
288 0.072414 GOP GOP GOP
289 0.020237 GOP GOP GOP
290 0.021148 GOP GOP GOP
291 -0.068874 Dem Dem Dem
292 0.021897 GOP GOP GOP
293 0.098509 GOP GOP GOP
294 -0.157391 Dem Dem Dem
295 0.069544 GOP GOP GOP
296 -0.060177 Dem Dem Dem
297 0.183927 GOP GOP GOP
298 0.016160 GOP GOP GOP
299 -0.079441 Dem Dem Dem
300 -0.106023 Dem Dem Dem
301 -0.179127 Dem Dem Dem
302 -0.168300 Dem Dem Dem
303 0.062611 GOP GOP GOP
304 -0.089329 Dem Dem Dem
305 0.081871 GOP GOP GOP
306 0.145298 GOP GOP GOP
307 0.022558 GOP GOP GOP
308 0.101883 GOP GOP GOP
[64 rows x 77 columns]
votes_dem_16 votes_gop_16 tot_votes_16 Clinton Trump diff_216 \
2244 14077 31249 47138 0.298634 0.662926 17172
2245 363017 257488 643173 0.564416 0.400340 105529
2246 6849 22676 30446 0.224956 0.744794 15827
2247 30225 46081 79036 0.382421 0.583038 15856
2248 3613 19455 23504 0.153719 0.827731 15842
2249 75169 93094 175934 0.427257 0.529142 17925
2250 13093 37224 52029 0.251648 0.715447 24131
2251 6263 17957 25399 0.246585 0.706996 11694
2252 165861 163873 342572 0.484164 0.478361 1988
2253 26834 61388 92027 0.291588 0.667065 34554
2254 17798 40510 60167 0.295810 0.673293 22712
2255 469 1495 2024 0.231719 0.738636 1026
2256 8917 18714 28721 0.310470 0.651579 9797
2257 36555 35099 75394 0.484853 0.465541 1456
2258 140188 115582 266637 0.525763 0.433481 24606
2259 4256 12545 17481 0.243464 0.717636 8289
2260 7700 23909 32692 0.235532 0.731341 16209
2261 4533 9701 14839 0.305479 0.653750 5168
2262 8502 17387 27127 0.313415 0.640948 8885
2263 10215 23912 35563 0.287237 0.672384 13697
2264 44282 65649 115068 0.384833 0.570524 21367
2265 64287 60620 130160 0.493907 0.465734 3667
2266 169169 106559 284832 0.593926 0.374112 62610
2267 3637 9704 13854 0.262523 0.700448 6067
2268 54820 57168 117240 0.467588 0.487615 2348
2269 17826 34388 53426 0.333658 0.643657 16562
2270 626 1680 2398 0.261051 0.700584 1054
2271 17322 49554 69345 0.249795 0.714601 32232
2272 904 5676 6743 0.134065 0.841762 4772
2273 4157 10394 14955 0.277967 0.695018 6237
... ... ... ... ... ... ...
2281 17860 38804 58906 0.303195 0.658744 20944
2282 77087 70285 153031 0.503735 0.459286 6802
2283 51454 77508 132731 0.387656 0.583948 26054
2284 12926 35475 50294 0.257009 0.705353 22549
2285 3802 11159 15572 0.244156 0.716607 7357
2286 17631 30034 49594 0.355507 0.605597 12403
2287 3563 14050 18239 0.195351 0.770327 10487
2288 31930 31706 65944 0.484199 0.480802 224
2289 251063 160803 427489 0.587297 0.376157 90260
2290 2851 5274 8535 0.334036 0.617926 2423
2291 65936 71384 142775 0.461818 0.499975 5448
2292 9184 24418 34971 0.262618 0.698236 15234
2293 4630 15613 21153 0.218881 0.738099 10983
2294 560542 105418 680227 0.824051 0.154975 455124
2295 9247 16035 26066 0.354753 0.615169 6788
2296 1300 6247 7777 0.167160 0.803266 4947
2297 16724 43937 62750 0.266518 0.700191 27213
2298 3991 11710 16333 0.244352 0.716953 7719
2299 7367 27347 35730 0.206185 0.765379 19980
2300 756 2318 3168 0.238636 0.731692 1562
2301 5065 13295 19200 0.263802 0.692448 8230
2302 3642 12928 17334 0.210107 0.745817 9286
2303 6138 10605 17400 0.352759 0.609483 4467
2304 5889 15254 22096 0.266519 0.690351 9365
2305 4828 12032 17624 0.273945 0.682705 7204
2306 34436 58941 96945 0.355212 0.607984 24505
2307 6398 15269 22365 0.286072 0.682719 8871
2308 59506 116427 181740 0.327424 0.640624 56921
2309 3573 8375 12418 0.287727 0.674424 4802
2310 67428 126933 203153 0.331907 0.624815 59505
per_point_diff_16 State FIPS tot_votes_12 ... Density \
2244 -0.364292 PA 42001 41973 ... 195.5
2245 0.164076 PA 42003 614671 ... 1675.6
2246 -0.519838 PA 42005 28322 ... 105.5
2247 -0.200617 PA 42007 80015 ... 392.3
2248 -0.674013 PA 42009 21444 ... 49.2
2249 -0.101885 PA 42011 163253 ... 480.4
2250 -0.463799 PA 42013 47631 ... 241.7
2251 -0.460412 PA 42015 22501 ... 54.6
2252 0.005803 PA 42017 319407 ... 1034.7
2253 -0.375477 PA 42019 88924 ... 233.1
2254 -0.377483 PA 42021 57718 ... 208.7
2255 -0.506917 PA 42023 1967 ... 12.8
2256 -0.341109 PA 42025 24232 ... 171.1
2257 0.019312 PA 42027 68801 ... 138.7
2258 0.092283 PA 42029 248295 ... 664.7
2259 -0.474172 PA 42031 15227 ... 66.6
2260 -0.495809 PA 42033 31894 ... 71.3
2261 -0.348271 PA 42035 12663 ... 44.2
2262 -0.327533 PA 42037 24305 ... 139.3
2263 -0.385147 PA 42039 33089 ... 87.7
2264 -0.185690 PA 42041 109964 ... 431.6
2265 0.028173 PA 42043 122625 ... 510.6
2266 0.219814 PA 42045 272853 ... 3040.5
2267 -0.437924 PA 42047 12425 ... 38.6
2268 -0.020027 PA 42049 112732 ... 351.1
2269 -0.309999 PA 42051 48196 ... 172.8
2270 -0.439533 PA 42053 2308 ... 18.1
2271 -0.464806 PA 42055 62802 ... 193.7
2272 -0.707697 PA 42057 6148 ... 33.9
2273 -0.417051 PA 42059 13726 ... 67.2
... ... ... ... ... ... ...
2281 -0.355550 PA 42075 53771 ... 369.1
2282 0.044449 PA 42077 144922 ... 1012.5
2283 -0.196292 PA 42079 123741 ... 360.4
2284 -0.448344 PA 42081 46214 ... 94.5
2285 -0.472451 PA 42083 15014 ... 44.4
2286 -0.250091 PA 42085 48065 ... 173.4
2287 -0.574977 PA 42087 16311 ... 113.6
2288 0.003397 PA 42089 59312 ... 279.2
2289 0.211140 PA 42091 401787 ... 1655.9
2290 -0.283890 PA 42093 7787 ... 140.3
2291 -0.038158 PA 42095 125883 ... 805.4
2292 -0.435618 PA 42097 31512 ... 206.2
2293 -0.519217 PA 42099 18240 ... 83.4
2294 0.669077 PA 42101 653598 ... 11379.5
2295 -0.260416 PA 42103 23164 ... 105.3
2296 -0.636106 PA 42105 7205 ... 16.1
2297 -0.433673 PA 42107 57505 ... 190.4
2298 -0.472601 PA 42109 14962 ... 120.8
2299 -0.559194 PA 42111 33875 ... 72.4
2300 -0.493056 PA 42113 2934 ... 14.3
2301 -0.428646 PA 42115 17930 ... 52.7
2302 -0.535710 PA 42117 15943 ... 37.0
2303 -0.256724 PA 42119 16187 ... 142.2
2304 -0.423832 PA 42121 20775 ... 81.5
2305 -0.408761 PA 42123 16462 ... 47.3
2306 -0.252772 PA 42125 90078 ... 242.5
2307 -0.396647 PA 42127 20966 ... 72.8
2308 -0.313200 PA 42129 168709 ... 355.4
2309 -0.386697 PA 42131 11214 ... 71.2
2310 -0.292907 PA 42133 186394 ... 481.1
Clinton_Obama Trump_Romney Trump_Pred Clinton_Pred Trump_Dev \
2244 -0.056190 0.031806 0.717245 0.235391 0.054319
2245 -0.001986 -0.021518 0.480831 0.460025 0.080491
2246 -0.082014 0.065781 0.756381 0.191923 0.011587
2247 -0.077906 0.056662 0.656516 0.288697 0.073478
2248 -0.066856 0.057866 0.791460 0.164320 -0.036271
2249 -0.062137 0.033855 0.615191 0.334654 0.086049
2250 -0.074106 0.054113 0.701313 0.241631 -0.014135
2251 -0.121888 0.092490 0.740910 0.208832 0.033914
2252 -0.015506 -0.009656 0.553486 0.384176 0.075125
2253 -0.027617 -0.001101 0.625355 0.313164 -0.041710
2254 -0.105815 0.093508 0.699973 0.247239 0.026681
2255 -0.112460 0.096033 0.772696 0.179913 0.034059
2256 -0.145126 0.127066 0.747042 0.203832 0.095463
2257 -0.004631 -0.024234 0.464211 0.464175 -0.001330
2258 0.033478 -0.063025 0.435941 0.498246 0.002461
2259 -0.067234 0.045935 0.705206 0.240708 -0.012431
2260 -0.112277 0.094764 0.747762 0.203690 0.016421
2261 -0.129094 0.105618 0.729900 0.221092 0.076150
2262 -0.115468 0.087770 0.682169 0.263638 0.041220
2263 -0.106368 0.083155 0.713353 0.236184 0.040969
2264 -0.015143 -0.014804 0.588306 0.352889 0.017783
2265 -0.029713 0.002224 0.506613 0.442497 0.040878
2266 -0.010081 -0.011700 0.442098 0.506536 0.067986
2267 -0.151481 0.129099 0.759772 0.186613 0.059324
2268 -0.110207 0.078663 0.600408 0.342631 0.112793
2269 -0.119513 0.107409 0.728816 0.224878 0.085159
2270 -0.126297 0.102230 0.715891 0.253688 0.015307
2271 -0.051311 0.028763 0.710944 0.243487 -0.003657
2272 -0.076898 0.064273 0.802791 0.154870 -0.038971
2273 -0.127395 0.113276 0.743434 0.211771 0.048416
... ... ... ... ... ...
2281 -0.049690 0.026247 0.692677 0.258909 0.033932
2282 -0.027786 0.003241 0.530111 0.413021 0.070825
2283 -0.129343 0.115478 0.642919 0.301733 0.058971
2284 -0.069819 0.045596 0.695955 0.253991 -0.009397
2285 -0.106184 0.084264 0.718703 0.226717 0.002096
2286 -0.124718 0.099949 0.677757 0.271269 0.072160
2287 -0.065762 0.041187 0.803895 0.157605 0.033568
2288 -0.079448 0.057616 0.551387 0.394649 0.070585
2289 0.020925 -0.046711 0.433549 0.503022 0.057392
2290 -0.054560 0.022575 0.655680 0.288751 0.037753
2291 -0.054646 0.029364 0.597775 0.347301 0.097799
2292 -0.130629 0.110650 0.754025 0.200454 0.055789
2293 -0.078816 0.052189 0.770163 0.183311 0.032064
2294 -0.028191 0.014460 0.292092 0.684066 0.137118
2295 -0.084290 0.066343 0.635201 0.307166 0.020032
2296 -0.095436 0.081684 0.749435 0.198051 -0.053831
2297 -0.158715 0.141005 0.747176 0.206105 0.046984
2298 -0.067906 0.045252 0.769208 0.190570 0.052254
2299 -0.071896 0.058811 0.764589 0.191090 -0.000790
2300 -0.111739 0.098086 0.747946 0.203628 0.016254
2301 -0.120526 0.093731 0.739405 0.207529 0.046958
2302 -0.106834 0.081012 0.710908 0.235272 -0.034909
2303 -0.021801 0.000167 0.670585 0.285158 0.061102
2304 -0.093000 0.068065 0.732508 0.213830 0.042157
2305 -0.137184 0.110782 0.730264 0.215571 0.047559
2306 -0.072229 0.047858 0.656054 0.288328 0.048070
2307 -0.102080 0.085037 0.703791 0.245840 0.021072
2308 -0.048253 0.027562 0.656756 0.284633 0.016132
2309 -0.141379 0.122525 0.732015 0.214808 0.057591
2310 -0.055047 0.026212 0.657834 0.291876 0.033019
Clinton_Dev winner16 winner12 change
2244 -0.063243 GOP GOP GOP
2245 -0.104390 Dem Dem Dem
2246 -0.033032 GOP GOP GOP
2247 -0.093724 GOP GOP GOP
2248 0.010601 GOP GOP GOP
2249 -0.092603 GOP GOP GOP
2250 -0.010018 GOP GOP GOP
2251 -0.037753 GOP GOP GOP
2252 -0.099988 Dem Dem Dem
2253 0.021576 GOP GOP GOP
2254 -0.048571 GOP GOP GOP
2255 -0.051807 GOP GOP GOP
2256 -0.106637 GOP GOP GOP
2257 -0.020677 Dem GOP Demchange
2258 -0.027517 Dem GOP Demchange
2259 -0.002756 GOP GOP GOP
2260 -0.031842 GOP GOP GOP
2261 -0.084387 GOP GOP GOP
2262 -0.049776 GOP GOP GOP
2263 -0.051053 GOP GOP GOP
2264 -0.031945 GOP GOP GOP
2265 -0.051411 Dem Dem Dem
2266 -0.087390 Dem Dem Dem
2267 -0.075910 GOP GOP GOP
2268 -0.124956 GOP Dem GOPchange
2269 -0.108780 GOP GOP GOP
2270 -0.007362 GOP GOP GOP
2271 -0.006307 GOP GOP GOP
2272 0.020805 GOP GOP GOP
2273 -0.066196 GOP GOP GOP
... ... ... ... ...
2281 -0.044286 GOP GOP GOP
2282 -0.090713 Dem Dem Dem
2283 -0.085924 GOP Dem GOPchange
2284 -0.003018 GOP GOP GOP
2285 -0.017439 GOP GOP GOP
2286 -0.084237 GOP GOP GOP
2287 -0.037746 GOP GOP GOP
2288 -0.089550 Dem Dem Dem
2289 -0.084275 Dem Dem Dem
2290 -0.045286 GOP GOP GOP
2291 -0.114516 GOP Dem GOPchange
2292 -0.062163 GOP GOP GOP
2293 -0.035570 GOP GOP GOP
2294 -0.139986 Dem Dem Dem
2295 -0.047588 GOP GOP GOP
2296 0.030891 GOP GOP GOP
2297 -0.060413 GOP GOP GOP
2298 -0.053782 GOP GOP GOP
2299 -0.015095 GOP GOP GOP
2300 -0.035008 GOP GOP GOP
2301 -0.056273 GOP GOP GOP
2302 0.025164 GOP GOP GOP
2303 -0.067600 GOP GOP GOP
2304 -0.052689 GOP GOP GOP
2305 -0.058373 GOP GOP GOP
2306 -0.066884 GOP GOP GOP
2307 -0.040232 GOP GOP GOP
2308 -0.042791 GOP GOP GOP
2309 -0.072920 GOP GOP GOP
2310 -0.040032 GOP GOP GOP
[67 rows x 77 columns]
votes_dem_16 votes_gop_16 tot_votes_16 Clinton Trump diff_216 \
1900 13517 19315 34462 0.392229 0.560472 5798
1901 12987 14635 29063 0.446857 0.503561 1648
1902 22064 16876 41080 0.537098 0.410808 5188
1903 6558 7951 15255 0.429892 0.521206 1393
1904 28510 19010 50065 0.569460 0.379706 9500
1905 99589 100013 210622 0.472833 0.474846 424
1906 40198 37674 81982 0.490327 0.459540 2524
1907 79994 90447 179005 0.446881 0.505276 10453
1908 34894 29072 67918 0.513767 0.428046 5822
1909 10210 10796 22101 0.461970 0.488485 586
per_point_diff_16 State FIPS tot_votes_12 ... Density \
1900 -0.168243 NH 33001 33771 ... 150.1
1901 -0.056704 NH 33003 28464 ... 51.4
1902 0.126290 NH 33005 41071 ... 109.1
1903 -0.091314 NH 33007 15614 ... 18.4
1904 0.189753 NH 33009 48765 ... 52.2
1905 -0.002013 NH 33011 202765 ... 457.4
1906 0.030787 NH 33013 80054 ... 156.8
1907 -0.058395 NH 33015 169794 ... 425.0
1908 0.085721 NH 33017 63762 ... 333.7
1909 -0.026515 NH 33019 21814 ... 81.4
Clinton_Obama Trump_Romney Trump_Pred Clinton_Pred Trump_Dev \
1900 -0.078115 0.040263 0.652807 0.289498 0.092335
1901 -0.044184 0.004440 0.626437 0.312406 0.122876
1902 -0.079614 0.042300 0.622108 0.316917 0.211300
1903 -0.152342 0.115032 0.745739 0.207149 0.224533
1904 -0.042167 0.006344 0.555161 0.380755 0.175454
1905 -0.027742 -0.008980 0.567800 0.371484 0.092954
1906 -0.067234 0.029193 0.603683 0.334960 0.144143
1907 -0.024843 -0.011874 0.575393 0.359123 0.070116
1908 -0.051241 0.008062 0.601652 0.336694 0.173607
1909 -0.095745 0.063574 0.675312 0.268606 0.186827
Clinton_Dev winner16 winner12 change
1900 -0.102731 GOP GOP GOP
1901 -0.134451 GOP GOP GOP
1902 -0.220182 Dem Dem Dem
1903 -0.222743 GOP Dem GOPchange
1904 -0.188704 Dem Dem Dem
1905 -0.101349 GOP Dem GOPchange
1906 -0.155367 Dem Dem Dem
1907 -0.087758 GOP GOP GOP
1908 -0.177072 Dem Dem Dem
1909 -0.193365 GOP Dem GOPchange
[10 rows x 77 columns]
votes_dem_16 votes_gop_16 tot_votes_16 Clinton Trump diff_216 \
1964 9610 13125 25016 0.384154 0.524664 3515
1965 2210 7828 10936 0.202085 0.715801 5618
1966 401068 319571 765421 0.523984 0.417510 81497
1967 8453 17406 27871 0.303290 0.624520 8953
1968 3400 13542 18545 0.183338 0.730224 10142
1969 65 329 423 0.153664 0.777778 264
1970 74 723 854 0.086651 0.846604 649
1971 1386 4521 6433 0.215452 0.702783 3135
1972 403 1828 2413 0.167012 0.757563 1425
1973 285 1671 2132 0.133677 0.783771 1386
1974 6146 16005 23762 0.258648 0.673554 9859
1975 637 1179 1997 0.318978 0.590386 542
1976 5095 13320 19592 0.260055 0.679869 8225
1977 430 1403 1982 0.216953 0.707871 973
1978 752 1616 2558 0.293980 0.631744 864
1979 97032 94529 209282 0.463642 0.451682 2503
1980 707 2723 3773 0.187384 0.721707 2016
per_point_diff_16 State FIPS tot_votes_12 ... Density \
1964 -0.140510 NV 32510 23318 ... 382.1
1965 -0.513716 NV 32001 10265 ... 5.0
1966 0.106473 NV 32003 688339 ... 247.3
1967 -0.321230 NV 32005 26054 ... 66.2
1968 -0.546886 NV 32007 15984 ... 2.8
1969 -0.624113 NV 32009 435 ... 0.2
1970 -0.759953 NV 32011 808 ... 0.5
1971 -0.487331 NV 32013 5744 ... 1.7
1972 -0.590551 NV 32015 2165 ... 1.1
1973 -0.650094 NV 32017 2152 ... 0.5
1974 -0.414906 NV 32019 21465 ... 26.0
1975 -0.271407 NV 32021 2035 ... 1.3
1976 -0.419814 NV 32023 17522 ... 2.4
1977 -0.490918 NV 32027 1884 ... 1.1
1978 -0.337764 NV 32029 2314 ... 15.3
1979 0.011960 NV 32031 186917 ... 66.9
1980 -0.534323 NV 32033 3704 ... 1.1
Clinton_Obama Trump_Romney Trump_Pred Clinton_Pred Trump_Dev \
1964 -0.057136 -0.006856 0.608089 0.331909 0.083425
1965 -0.086371 0.027930 0.639958 0.298412 -0.075843
1966 -0.039660 -0.001212 0.507896 0.436609 0.090386
1967 -0.053200 0.000278 0.607854 0.325570 -0.016666
1968 -0.036257 -0.021340 0.680719 0.269041 -0.049505
1969 -0.057830 0.049042 0.658724 0.286321 -0.119053
1970 -0.045775 0.026060 0.611568 0.326234 -0.235036
1971 -0.086951 0.039482 0.694702 0.254088 -0.008081
1972 -0.079639 0.027771 0.730813 0.224031 -0.026750
1973 -0.052196 -0.002010 0.707913 0.246836 -0.075858
1974 -0.085167 0.043692 0.677678 0.269816 0.004124
1975 -0.105100 0.059673 0.617173 0.320625 0.026788
1976 -0.100634 0.076856 0.700656 0.249373 0.020786
1977 -0.118504 0.088444 0.699857 0.256601 -0.008014
1978 -0.103600 0.060871 0.641950 0.292058 0.010207
1979 -0.043567 -0.019923 0.539831 0.396436 0.088149
1980 -0.078005 0.019493 0.685127 0.263394 -0.036580
Clinton_Dev winner16 winner12 change
1964 -0.052245 GOP GOP GOP
1965 0.096328 GOP GOP GOP
1966 -0.087374 Dem Dem Dem
1967 0.022280 GOP GOP GOP
1968 0.085703 GOP GOP GOP
1969 0.132657 GOP GOP GOP
1970 0.239583 GOP GOP GOP
1971 0.038636 GOP GOP GOP
1972 0.057019 GOP GOP GOP
1973 0.113159 GOP GOP GOP
1974 0.011168 GOP GOP GOP
1975 0.001647 GOP GOP GOP
1976 -0.010682 GOP GOP GOP
1977 0.039648 GOP GOP GOP
1978 -0.001921 GOP GOP GOP
1979 -0.067207 Dem Dem Dem
1980 0.076010 GOP GOP GOP
[17 rows x 77 columns]
votes_dem_16 votes_gop_16 tot_votes_16 Clinton Trump diff_216 \
1654 29268 38235 69264 0.422557 0.552018 8967
1655 3750 13826 18011 0.208206 0.767642 10076
1656 1300 3789 5214 0.249329 0.726697 2489
1657 5785 4480 10394 0.556571 0.431018 1305
1658 3476 9353 13160 0.264134 0.710714 5877
1659 1670 6226 8060 0.207196 0.772457 4556
1660 8699 14478 23599 0.368617 0.613501 5779
1661 5837 3476 9380 0.622281 0.370576 2361
1662 7021 8511 15743 0.445976 0.540621 1490
1663 23117 42440 67255 0.343722 0.631031 19323
1664 74937 55339 134507 0.557123 0.411421 19598
1665 10930 25741 37638 0.290398 0.683910 14811
1666 35048 53224 91002 0.385134 0.584866 18176
1667 8403 26499 35747 0.235069 0.741293 18096
1668 1266 3527 4939 0.256327 0.714112 2261
1669 9806 26228 36919 0.265608 0.710420 16422
1670 4549 5758 10515 0.432620 0.547599 1209
1671 21050 48062 71065 0.296208 0.676310 27012
1672 20953 17012 39080 0.536157 0.435312 3941
1673 2809 10711 13860 0.202670 0.772799 7902
1674 2965 3983 7108 0.417136 0.560355 1018
1675 1352 4395 5885 0.229737 0.746814 3043
1676 14896 28394 44137 0.337495 0.643315 13498
1677 8991 14177 23472 0.383052 0.603996 5186
1678 17481 27556 46231 0.378123 0.596050 10075
1679 70523 50593 124402 0.566896 0.406690 19930
1680 2879 9070 12423 0.231748 0.730097 6191
1681 7079 11283 19009 0.372403 0.593561 4204
1682 17328 52870 72013 0.240623 0.734173 35542
1683 5228 15502 21350 0.244871 0.726089 10274
... ... ... ... ... ... ...
1724 9086 17317 27072 0.335624 0.639665 8231
1725 2291 4143 6595 0.347384 0.628203 1852
1726 7772 11116 19303 0.402632 0.575869 3344
1727 40967 35191 78264 0.523446 0.449645 5776
1728 3715 6738 10723 0.346452 0.628369 3023
1729 13074 49156 63615 0.205518 0.772711 36082
1730 8290 10199 18813 0.440653 0.542125 1909
1731 18377 20294 39454 0.465783 0.514371 1917
1732 14057 26463 41374 0.339754 0.639605 12406
1733 19208 42388 63078 0.304512 0.671993 23180
1734 7451 21694 29764 0.250336 0.728867 14243
1735 10486 14761 25638 0.409002 0.575747 4275
1736 7279 6212 13743 0.529651 0.452012 1067
1737 7008 21788 29451 0.237955 0.739805 14780
1738 4645 16976 22182 0.209404 0.765305 12331
1739 7438 23495 31663 0.234911 0.742033 16057
1740 2186 3557 5982 0.365430 0.594617 1371
1741 6520 10441 17440 0.373853 0.598681 3921
1742 705 968 1700 0.414706 0.569412 263
1743 34051 66265 103596 0.328690 0.639648 32214
1744 12168 7304 19762 0.615727 0.369598 4864
1745 298353 193607 510940 0.583930 0.378923 104746
1746 6668 3302 10123 0.658698 0.326188 3366
1747 3490 2560 6115 0.570728 0.418643 930
1748 13953 13521 28769 0.485001 0.469985 432
1749 21520 27360 49824 0.431920 0.549133 5840
1750 6596 23613 30844 0.213850 0.765562 17017
1751 19527 17410 37593 0.519432 0.463118 2117
1752 3140 13815 17350 0.180980 0.796254 10675
1753 3181 6367 9808 0.324327 0.649164 3186
per_point_diff_16 State FIPS tot_votes_12 ... Density \
1654 -0.129461 NC 37001 66638 ... 356.5
1655 -0.559436 NC 37003 17060 ... 143.1
1656 -0.477369 NC 37005 5025 ... 47.5
1657 0.125553 NC 37007 11072 ... 50.7
1658 -0.446581 NC 37009 12486 ... 64.0
1659 -0.565261 NC 37011 7657 ... 72.0
1660 -0.244883 NC 37013 23468 ... 57.7
1661 0.251706 NC 37015 9941 ... 30.4
1662 -0.094645 NC 37017 16351 ... 40.2
1663 -0.287309 NC 37019 56985 ... 126.8
1664 0.145702 NC 37021 126201 ... 362.9
1665 -0.393512 NC 37023 36116 ... 179.3
1666 -0.199732 NC 37025 82445 ... 492.1
1667 -0.506224 NC 37027 34338 ... 176.1
1668 -0.457785 NC 37029 4520 ... 41.5
1669 -0.444812 NC 37031 35124 ... 131.3
1670 -0.114979 NC 37033 10736 ... 55.8
1671 -0.380103 NC 37035 69102 ... 387.1
1672 0.100844 NC 37037 35157 ... 93.1
1673 -0.570130 NC 37039 12695 ... 60.3
1674 -0.143219 NC 37041 7424 ... 85.8
1675 -0.517077 NC 37043 5592 ... 49.3
1676 -0.305821 NC 37045 42542 ... 211.3
1677 -0.220944 NC 37047 24017 ... 62.0
1678 -0.217927 NC 37049 45585 ... 146.0
1679 0.160206 NC 37051 126092 ... 489.7
1680 -0.498350 NC 37053 11153 ... 89.9
1681 -0.221158 NC 37055 17614 ... 88.5
1682 -0.493550 NC 37057 69994 ... 294.7
1683 -0.481218 NC 37059 20418 ... 156.2
... ... ... ... ... ... ...
1724 -0.304041 NC 37141 24036 ... 60.0
1725 -0.280819 NC 37143 6621 ... 54.4
1726 -0.173237 NC 37145 19008 ... 100.6
1727 0.073801 NC 37147 76814 ... 257.9
1728 -0.281917 NC 37149 10323 ... 86.3
1729 -0.567193 NC 37151 60202 ... 181.1
1730 -0.101472 NC 37153 19127 ... 98.4
1731 -0.048588 NC 37155 41380 ... 141.3
1732 -0.299850 NC 37157 41549 ... 165.6
1733 -0.367482 NC 37159 61803 ... 270.7
1734 -0.478531 NC 37161 28373 ... 120.2
1735 -0.166745 NC 37163 26005 ... 67.1
1736 0.077640 NC 37165 14020 ... 113.4
1737 -0.501851 NC 37167 28276 ... 153.3
1738 -0.555901 NC 37169 21396 ... 105.6
1739 -0.507122 NC 37171 29096 ... 138.4
1740 -0.229188 NC 37173 5705 ... 26.5
1741 -0.224828 NC 37175 16469 ... 87.4
1742 -0.154706 NC 37177 1775 ... 11.3
1743 -0.310958 NC 37179 93389 ... 318.7
1744 0.246129 NC 37181 20770 ... 179.2
1745 0.205006 NC 37183 526805 ... 1078.8
1746 0.332510 NC 37185 9777 ... 48.9
1747 0.152085 NC 37187 6456 ... 38.0
1748 0.015016 NC 37189 28168 ... 163.4
1749 -0.117213 NC 37191 50988 ... 221.7
1750 -0.551712 NC 37193 28852 ... 91.9
1751 0.056314 NC 37195 38890 ... 220.6
1752 -0.615274 NC 37197 16657 ... 114.7
1753 -0.324837 NC 37199 9344 ... 57.0
Clinton_Obama Trump_Romney Trump_Pred Clinton_Pred Trump_Dev \
1654 -0.002741 -0.013905 0.558698 0.400324 0.006680
1655 -0.060903 0.052109 0.763445 0.202262 -0.004197
1656 -0.063905 0.054459 0.708425 0.249660 -0.018272
1657 -0.066081 0.058456 0.533150 0.457369 0.102132
1658 -0.064234 0.053418 0.704852 0.249747 -0.005862
1659 -0.035850 0.026995 0.694473 0.263464 -0.077984
1660 -0.031885 0.020438 0.572141 0.393961 -0.041359
1661 -0.035298 0.031877 0.493779 0.511853 0.123204
1662 -0.060232 0.054596 0.587955 0.395158 0.047334
1663 -0.041152 0.024082 0.598844 0.352643 -0.032187
1664 0.001930 -0.019867 0.534118 0.406408 0.122697
1665 -0.085530 0.071744 0.703462 0.263022 0.019552
1666 -0.008498 -0.010986 0.555441 0.398614 -0.029425
1667 -0.079306 0.069472 0.768188 0.202218 0.026895
1668 -0.065797 0.051502 0.686541 0.273848 -0.027571
1669 -0.024706 0.010101 0.632940 0.313694 -0.077480
1670 -0.050148 0.038005 0.648292 0.341608 0.100693
1671 -0.050439 0.033985 0.642560 0.315021 -0.033751
1672 0.017000 -0.036230 0.495513 0.453753 0.060201
1673 -0.060347 0.048026 0.731704 0.225028 -0.041096
1674 -0.055251 0.038803 0.500417 0.470811 -0.059938
1675 -0.051558 0.040090 0.659850 0.282942 -0.086964
1676 -0.055858 0.045318 0.629288 0.337233 -0.014027
1677 -0.073833 0.068417 0.582971 0.390218 -0.021025
1678 -0.028941 0.011340 0.551267 0.403536 -0.044783
1679 -0.027836 0.008639 0.415637 0.540910 0.008947
1680 -0.083952 0.063819 0.716471 0.240975 -0.013626
1681 -0.039656 0.020040 0.605037 0.334534 0.011477
1682 -0.049273 0.035042 0.687555 0.275749 -0.046618
1683 -0.031943 0.012601 0.640173 0.311955 -0.085916
... ... ... ... ... ...
1724 -0.057745 0.041895 0.575204 0.377166 -0.064461
1725 -0.067508 0.052157 0.587962 0.376431 -0.040241
1726 -0.038446 0.025206 0.605740 0.363017 0.029871
1727 -0.006418 -0.012953 0.410401 0.548566 -0.039244
1728 -0.041033 0.025928 0.617779 0.328171 -0.010590
1729 -0.038245 0.026673 0.724292 0.240334 -0.048418
1730 -0.068941 0.059248 0.560783 0.409864 0.018658
1731 -0.113168 0.101297 0.468764 0.499800 -0.045607
1732 -0.049425 0.037015 0.678194 0.293717 0.038590
1733 -0.060017 0.047072 0.636619 0.327628 -0.035374
1734 -0.076630 0.066371 0.672995 0.286602 -0.055872
1735 -0.033067 0.023622 0.587030 0.388301 0.011283
1736 -0.050306 0.038389 0.469294 0.504924 0.017282
1737 -0.055121 0.043172 0.698186 0.267221 -0.041619
1738 -0.069573 0.057603 0.765609 0.196954 0.000304
1739 -0.074581 0.063143 0.740241 0.227575 -0.001793
1740 -0.093466 0.072970 0.580476 0.361278 -0.014141
1741 -0.035401 0.020504 0.625484 0.319679 0.026803
1742 -0.055717 0.046031 0.636334 0.357597 0.066922
1743 -0.014305 -0.007837 0.542731 0.406080 -0.096917
1744 -0.023945 0.013026 0.488261 0.501119 0.118663
1745 0.039252 -0.063239 0.325834 0.614650 -0.053089
1746 -0.019936 0.007992 0.465629 0.522528 0.139441
1747 -0.019576 0.013593 0.506873 0.478009 0.088230
1748 0.010314 -0.031435 0.478642 0.451322 0.008657
1749 -0.022186 0.009084 0.527768 0.439985 -0.021365
1750 -0.066512 0.058159 0.764995 0.205898 -0.000568
1751 -0.013996 0.002743 0.494079 0.483659 0.030961
1752 -0.054837 0.045818 0.745297 0.216717 -0.050956
1753 -0.098832 0.087413 0.710776 0.241557 0.061612
Clinton_Dev winner16 winner12 change
1654 -0.022234 GOP GOP GOP
1655 -0.005944 GOP GOP GOP
1656 0.000331 GOP GOP GOP
1657 -0.099203 Dem Dem Dem
1658 -0.014387 GOP GOP GOP
1659 0.056268 GOP GOP GOP
1660 0.025344 GOP GOP GOP
1661 -0.110428 Dem Dem Dem
1662 -0.050818 GOP Dem GOPchange
1663 0.008921 GOP GOP GOP
1664 -0.150715 Dem Dem Dem
1665 -0.027376 GOP GOP GOP
1666 0.013480 GOP GOP GOP
1667 -0.032851 GOP GOP GOP
1668 0.017521 GOP GOP GOP
1669 0.048085 GOP GOP GOP
1670 -0.091012 GOP GOP GOP
1671 0.018813 GOP GOP GOP
1672 -0.082404 Dem Dem Dem
1673 0.022359 GOP GOP GOP
1674 0.053676 GOP GOP GOP
1675 0.053205 GOP GOP GOP
1676 -0.000262 GOP GOP GOP
1677 0.007166 GOP GOP GOP
1678 0.025413 GOP GOP GOP
1679 -0.025986 Dem Dem Dem
1680 0.009227 GOP GOP GOP
1681 -0.037869 GOP GOP GOP
1682 0.035126 GOP GOP GOP
1683 0.067084 GOP GOP GOP
... ... ... ... ...
1724 0.041543 GOP GOP GOP
1725 0.029047 GOP GOP GOP
1726 -0.039615 GOP GOP GOP
1727 0.025120 Dem Dem Dem
1728 -0.018281 GOP GOP GOP
1729 0.034816 GOP GOP GOP
1730 -0.030789 GOP Dem GOPchange
1731 0.034017 GOP Dem GOPchange
1732 -0.046038 GOP GOP GOP
1733 0.023116 GOP GOP GOP
1734 0.036266 GOP GOP GOP
1735 -0.020701 GOP GOP GOP
1736 -0.024728 Dem Dem Dem
1737 0.029266 GOP GOP GOP
1738 -0.012450 GOP GOP GOP
1739 -0.007336 GOP GOP GOP
1740 -0.004152 GOP GOP GOP
1741 -0.054174 GOP GOP GOP
1742 -0.057109 GOP GOP GOP
1743 0.077390 GOP GOP GOP
1744 -0.114608 Dem Dem Dem
1745 0.030720 Dem Dem Dem
1746 -0.136170 Dem Dem Dem
1747 -0.092718 Dem Dem Dem
1748 -0.033680 Dem GOP Demchange
1749 0.008064 GOP GOP GOP
1750 -0.007952 GOP GOP GOP
1751 -0.035773 Dem Dem Dem
1752 0.035737 GOP GOP GOP
1753 -0.082770 GOP GOP GOP
[100 rows x 77 columns]
votes_dem_16 votes_gop_16 tot_votes_16 Clinton Trump diff_216 \
2043 2293 8445 11063 0.207267 0.763355 6152
2044 12815 29858 44636 0.287100 0.668922 17043
2045 5659 17169 24074 0.235067 0.713176 11510
2046 15191 22755 39809 0.381597 0.571604 7564
2047 15552 10816 27941 0.556601 0.387101 4736
2048 3825 18130 22860 0.167323 0.793088 14305
2049 8652 20729 30537 0.283328 0.678816 12077
2050 4270 14257 19139 0.223105 0.744919 9987
2051 56700 104441 168422 0.336654 0.620115 47741
2052 3124 9067 12807 0.243929 0.707972 5943
2053 4488 12314 17597 0.255043 0.699778 7826
2054 22666 34311 59620 0.380174 0.575495 11645
2055 26096 65960 96455 0.270551 0.683842 39864
2056 3943 13466 18100 0.217845 0.743978 9523
2057 12273 31086 45261 0.271161 0.686816 18813
2058 3908 10381 14961 0.261212 0.693871 6473
2059 4518 13265 18702 0.241578 0.709282 8747
2060 383974 179894 583230 0.658358 0.308444 204080
2061 4395 19698 25000 0.175800 0.787920 15303
2062 5282 11478 17795 0.296825 0.645013 6196
2063 39584 55660 100101 0.395441 0.556038 16076
2064 15692 19301 36730 0.427226 0.525483 3609
2065 24150 43163 70542 0.342349 0.611877 19013
2066 2672 7763 10817 0.247019 0.717667 5091
2067 335961 192328 554711 0.605651 0.346717 143633
2068 5981 13419 20693 0.289035 0.648480 7438
2069 2564 9567 12588 0.203686 0.760010 7003
2070 17165 29577 48736 0.352204 0.606882 12412
2071 28023 47506 79633 0.351902 0.596562 19483
2072 4286 11164 16156 0.265288 0.691013 6878
... ... ... ... ... ... ...
2101 3711 11722 16186 0.229272 0.724206 8011
2102 10926 23588 36217 0.301682 0.651296 12662
2103 1201 4441 5875 0.204426 0.755915 3240
2104 8136 12389 21742 0.374207 0.569819 4253
2105 2068 6359 8842 0.233884 0.719181 4291
2106 4072 9978 14647 0.278009 0.681232 5906
2107 6325 16482 23814 0.265600 0.692114 10157
2108 3443 7669 11513 0.299053 0.666117 4226
2109 31463 38978 73968 0.425360 0.526958 7515
2110 4323 15376 20475 0.211136 0.750965 11053
2111 2874 14704 18387 0.156306 0.799695 11830
2112 15629 35805 53739 0.290832 0.666276 20176
2113 9905 17833 28955 0.342083 0.615887 7928
2114 9733 16045 27491 0.354043 0.583646 6312
2115 8841 19742 29618 0.298501 0.666554 10901
2116 7237 14559 23481 0.308207 0.620033 7322
2117 4143 18148 23110 0.179273 0.785288 14005
2118 66581 96345 170868 0.389663 0.563856 29764
2119 129922 109531 249937 0.519819 0.438234 20391
2120 42130 48152 94073 0.447844 0.511858 6022
2121 11895 26105 40088 0.296722 0.651192 14210
2122 7530 17601 26533 0.283798 0.663363 10071
2123 2667 10328 13584 0.196334 0.760306 7661
2124 1332 3799 5393 0.246987 0.704432 2467
2125 33036 75947 114254 0.289145 0.664721 42911
2126 7841 19901 28992 0.270454 0.686431 12060
2127 14670 31622 48550 0.302163 0.651329 16952
2128 4287 11706 16938 0.253100 0.691109 7419
2129 26440 31734 62287 0.424487 0.509480 5294
2130 2484 7346 10396 0.238938 0.706618 4862
per_point_diff_16 State FIPS tot_votes_12 ... Density \
2043 -0.556088 OH 39001 10787 ... 48.9
2044 -0.381822 OH 39003 46458 ... 264.2
2045 -0.478109 OH 39005 23826 ... 125.6
2046 -0.190007 OH 39007 41781 ... 144.6
2047 0.169500 OH 39009 26112 ... 128.6
2048 -0.625766 OH 39011 22838 ... 114.5
2049 -0.395487 OH 39013 30876 ... 132.3
2050 -0.521814 OH 39015 18955 ... 91.5
2051 -0.283461 OH 39017 164020 ... 788.2
2052 -0.464043 OH 39019 12965 ... 73.1
2053 -0.444735 OH 39021 20016 ... 93.5
2054 -0.195320 OH 39023 62136 ... 348.0
2055 -0.413291 OH 39025 93392 ... 436.5
2056 -0.526133 OH 39027 17648 ... 102.9
2057 -0.415656 OH 39029 45078 ... 202.7
2058 -0.432658 OH 39031 15555 ... 65.4
2059 -0.467704 OH 39033 19192 ... 109.0
2060 0.349913 OH 39035 611512 ... 2800.0
2061 -0.612120 OH 39037 24807 ... 88.5
2062 -0.348188 OH 39039 17744 ... 94.9
2063 -0.160598 OH 39041 96330 ... 393.2
2064 -0.098258 OH 39043 38262 ... 306.4
2065 -0.269527 OH 39045 70079 ... 289.8
2066 -0.470648 OH 39047 10677 ... 71.4
2067 0.258933 OH 39049 541751 ... 2186.1
2068 -0.359445 OH 39051 20757 ... 105.3
2069 -0.556323 OH 39053 9534 ... 66.3
2070 -0.254678 OH 39055 50125 ... 233.4
2071 -0.244660 OH 39057 81075 ... 390.5
2072 -0.425724 OH 39059 16403 ... 76.8
... ... ... ... ... ... ...
2101 -0.494934 OH 39117 15813 ... 85.8
2102 -0.349615 OH 39119 35954 ... 129.5
2103 -0.551489 OH 39121 5755 ... 36.8
2104 -0.195612 OH 39123 21936 ... 162.5
2105 -0.485297 OH 39125 8912 ... 47.1
2106 -0.403223 OH 39127 14673 ... 88.4
2107 -0.426514 OH 39129 23443 ... 111.1
2108 -0.367063 OH 39131 11233 ... 65.2
2109 -0.101598 OH 39133 74029 ... 331.2
2110 -0.539829 OH 39135 19619 ... 99.7
2111 -0.643389 OH 39137 18126 ... 71.5
2112 -0.375444 OH 39139 55954 ... 251.3
2113 -0.273804 OH 39141 28961 ... 113.3
2114 -0.229602 OH 39143 28192 ... 149.2
2115 -0.368053 OH 39145 30023 ... 130.3
2116 -0.311827 OH 39147 24633 ... 103.0
2117 -0.606015 OH 39149 23129 ... 121.2
2118 -0.174193 OH 39151 176620 ... 652.9
2119 0.081585 OH 39153 259389 ... 1312.6
2120 -0.064014 OH 39155 98703 ... 340.1
2121 -0.354470 OH 39157 39855 ... 163.1
2122 -0.379565 OH 39159 24947 ... 121.1
2123 -0.563972 OH 39161 13586 ... 70.3
2124 -0.457445 OH 39163 5352 ... 32.6
2125 -0.375575 OH 39165 108008 ... 530.0
2126 -0.415977 OH 39167 28798 ... 97.8
2127 -0.349166 OH 39169 49356 ... 206.4
2128 -0.438009 OH 39171 17286 ... 89.4
2129 -0.084994 OH 39173 61967 ... 203.3
2130 -0.467680 OH 39175 10254 ... 55.6
Clinton_Obama Trump_Romney Trump_Pred Clinton_Pred Trump_Dev \
2043 -0.150293 0.143072 0.804058 0.162483 0.040702
2044 -0.076002 0.048964 0.635385 0.314494 -0.033537
2045 -0.104184 0.074168 0.711024 0.237071 -0.002152
2046 -0.168031 0.143419 0.733727 0.218960 0.162123
2047 -0.104704 0.076210 0.536877 0.394923 0.149775
2048 -0.079765 0.057385 0.740932 0.203668 -0.052156
2049 -0.164463 0.147076 0.735475 0.215694 0.056659
2050 -0.142129 0.129197 0.813653 0.148965 0.068734
2051 -0.024777 -0.003138 0.587711 0.358311 -0.032404
2052 -0.172268 0.154405 0.789514 0.165025 0.081541
2053 -0.135944 0.107652 0.728006 0.222178 0.028228
2054 -0.102992 0.074722 0.660857 0.291441 0.085362
2055 -0.043544 0.014331 0.675433 0.272294 -0.008409
2056 -0.095731 0.078747 0.731278 0.217227 -0.012700
2057 -0.158118 0.137147 0.751894 0.199677 0.065077
2058 -0.178582 0.159509 0.771996 0.182145 0.078126
2059 -0.133943 0.106896 0.766221 0.184311 0.056938
2060 -0.030023 0.006774 0.423942 0.534319 0.115498
2061 -0.090657 0.072598 0.780426 0.171215 -0.007494
2062 -0.122359 0.085105 0.701393 0.243753 0.056381
2063 0.020365 -0.056232 0.443289 0.485297 -0.112750
2064 -0.120812 0.090195 0.641200 0.306656 0.115717
2065 -0.069058 0.039180 0.615170 0.327824 0.003294
2066 -0.134643 0.113002 0.741759 0.213062 0.024092
2067 0.004537 -0.037114 0.401078 0.545815 0.054360
2068 -0.134437 0.093438 0.726559 0.219556 0.078078
2069 -0.154820 0.139913 0.754166 0.205980 -0.005844
2070 -0.032734 0.006303 0.601577 0.339706 -0.005305
2071 -0.030806 -0.003907 0.513904 0.422646 -0.082658
2072 -0.175241 0.153855 0.747148 0.204825 0.056135
... ... ... ... ... ...
2101 -0.136250 0.113190 0.759162 0.190320 0.034956
2102 -0.152426 0.127683 0.719867 0.229906 0.068570
2103 -0.157347 0.148096 0.817754 0.148300 0.061839
2104 -0.137008 0.099223 0.692537 0.248671 0.122718
2105 -0.151552 0.130312 0.756872 0.190602 0.037690
2106 -0.189312 0.170225 0.783106 0.171068 0.101875
2107 -0.132600 0.107163 0.743719 0.212573 0.051605
2108 -0.189685 0.173372 0.778189 0.185759 0.112072
2109 -0.089060 0.061397 0.619736 0.320778 0.092778
2110 -0.094945 0.078045 0.788477 0.162876 0.037513
2111 -0.077502 0.051433 0.713567 0.228887 -0.086129
2112 -0.098506 0.075487 0.699624 0.255945 0.033348
2113 -0.137701 0.112382 0.721561 0.234284 0.105674
2114 -0.143793 0.105106 0.711509 0.234204 0.127864
2115 -0.182197 0.166171 0.735299 0.221942 0.068744
2116 -0.136806 0.091271 0.709273 0.235283 0.089240
2117 -0.082952 0.063250 0.750431 0.199928 -0.034857
2118 -0.099036 0.071511 0.644954 0.302893 0.081098
2119 -0.047460 0.019173 0.525878 0.420785 0.087643
2120 -0.154428 0.131474 0.674361 0.276496 0.162503
2121 -0.142771 0.113744 0.746499 0.203995 0.095307
2122 -0.058769 0.024127 0.643889 0.297269 -0.019474
2123 -0.092419 0.065989 0.732867 0.210872 -0.027440
2124 -0.198080 0.181636 0.810943 0.150410 0.106511
2125 -0.006268 -0.026210 0.554351 0.384895 -0.110370
2126 -0.123080 0.098855 0.728037 0.218318 0.041606
2127 -0.081418 0.054643 0.720472 0.232058 0.069144
2128 -0.154456 0.120531 0.749297 0.196946 0.058188
2129 -0.085398 0.041538 0.581167 0.352582 0.071687
2130 -0.147448 0.116214 0.774277 0.173216 0.067659
Clinton_Dev winner16 winner12 change
2043 -0.044785 GOP GOP GOP
2044 0.027394 GOP GOP GOP
2045 0.002004 GOP GOP GOP
2046 -0.162637 GOP Dem GOPchange
2047 -0.161678 Dem Dem Dem
2048 0.036345 GOP GOP GOP
2049 -0.067634 GOP GOP GOP
2050 -0.074140 GOP GOP GOP
2051 0.021656 GOP GOP GOP
2052 -0.078904 GOP GOP GOP
2053 -0.032865 GOP GOP GOP
2054 -0.088733 GOP GOP GOP
2055 0.001743 GOP GOP GOP
2056 -0.000619 GOP GOP GOP
2057 -0.071483 GOP GOP GOP
2058 -0.079068 GOP GOP GOP
2059 -0.057267 GOP GOP GOP
2060 -0.124039 Dem Dem Dem
2061 -0.004585 GOP GOP GOP
2062 -0.053072 GOP GOP GOP
2063 0.089856 GOP GOP GOP
2064 -0.120570 GOP Dem GOPchange
2065 -0.014525 GOP GOP GOP
2066 -0.033956 GOP GOP GOP
2067 -0.059835 Dem Dem Dem
2068 -0.069479 GOP GOP GOP
2069 0.002294 GOP GOP GOP
2070 -0.012498 GOP GOP GOP
2071 0.070744 GOP GOP GOP
2072 -0.060463 GOP GOP GOP
... ... ... ... ...
2101 -0.038952 GOP GOP GOP
2102 -0.071775 GOP GOP GOP
2103 -0.056125 GOP GOP GOP
2104 -0.125535 GOP Dem GOPchange
2105 -0.043282 GOP GOP GOP
2106 -0.106941 GOP GOP GOP
2107 -0.053027 GOP GOP GOP
2108 -0.113294 GOP GOP GOP
2109 -0.104581 GOP Dem GOPchange
2110 -0.048259 GOP GOP GOP
2111 0.072581 GOP GOP GOP
2112 -0.034887 GOP GOP GOP
2113 -0.107798 GOP GOP GOP
2114 -0.119839 GOP Dem GOPchange
2115 -0.076559 GOP GOP GOP
2116 -0.072923 GOP GOP GOP
2117 0.020655 GOP GOP GOP
2118 -0.086771 GOP GOP GOP
2119 -0.099034 Dem Dem Dem
2120 -0.171348 GOP Dem GOPchange
2121 -0.092727 GOP GOP GOP
2122 0.013472 GOP GOP GOP
2123 0.014538 GOP GOP GOP
2124 -0.096577 GOP GOP GOP
2125 0.095750 GOP GOP GOP
2126 -0.052136 GOP GOP GOP
2127 -0.070105 GOP GOP GOP
2128 -0.056154 GOP GOP GOP
2129 -0.071905 GOP Dem GOPchange
2130 -0.065722 GOP GOP GOP
[88 rows x 77 columns]
votes_dem_16 votes_gop_16 tot_votes_16 Clinton Trump diff_216 \
2992 3780 5983 10107 0.373998 0.591966 2203
2993 4136 3428 7926 0.521827 0.432501 708
2994 7881 13595 22514 0.350049 0.603846 5714
2995 4953 4125 9491 0.521863 0.434622 828
2996 53358 67192 127497 0.418504 0.527008 13834
2997 2531 4049 6921 0.365699 0.585031 1518
2998 2948 5412 8719 0.338112 0.620713 2464
2999 9634 15345 26429 0.364524 0.580612 5711
3000 11875 17912 31471 0.377332 0.569159 6037
3001 4225 8645 13548 0.311854 0.638102 4420
3002 13525 14160 29287 0.461809 0.483491 635
3003 3426 3844 7678 0.446210 0.500651 418
3004 217506 71270 304729 0.713769 0.233880 146236
3005 13968 26643 42818 0.326218 0.622238 12675
3006 8026 8584 17398 0.461317 0.493390 558
3007 11342 9657 22185 0.511246 0.435294 1685
3008 9025 11487 22029 0.409687 0.521449 2462
3009 27271 23301 54080 0.504271 0.430862 3970
3010 666 1897 2651 0.251226 0.715579 1231
3011 17391 31044 51094 0.340373 0.607586 13653
3012 1583 2787 4507 0.351231 0.618371 1204
3013 10047 12347 24051 0.417737 0.513367 2300
3014 9121 8693 18791 0.485392 0.462615 428
3015 2700 6210 9315 0.289855 0.666667 3510
3016 6669 4809 12123 0.550111 0.396684 1860
3017 1273 2090 3477 0.366120 0.601093 817
3018 3821 4907 9202 0.415236 0.533254 1086
3019 16559 23409 42324 0.391244 0.553090 6850
3020 4100 7188 11736 0.349352 0.612474 3088
3021 35770 36025 75825 0.471744 0.475107 255
... ... ... ... ... ... ...
3034 5886 13255 19924 0.295423 0.665278 7369
3035 8103 11677 20837 0.388876 0.560397 3574
3036 38117 51579 95162 0.400549 0.542013 13462
3037 20167 30458 53368 0.377886 0.570717 10291
3038 1345 2228 3746 0.359050 0.594768 883
3039 8380 11260 21089 0.397364 0.533928 2880
3040 7568 13864 22691 0.333524 0.610991 6296
3041 18524 17310 38123 0.485901 0.454057 1214
3042 2671 4562 7560 0.353307 0.603439 1891
3043 42506 46620 93678 0.453746 0.497662 4114
3044 3577 4021 7962 0.449259 0.505024 444
3045 39336 31483 75043 0.524179 0.419533 7853
3046 2171 4564 7029 0.308863 0.649310 2393
3047 16050 15871 33848 0.474179 0.468890 179
3048 2846 4625 7767 0.366422 0.595468 1779
3049 6056 12742 19697 0.307458 0.646901 6686
3050 22636 32368 58290 0.388334 0.555293 9732
3051 17496 26123 46819 0.373694 0.557957 8627
3052 2398 6589 9417 0.254646 0.699692 4191
3053 5645 7370 13581 0.415654 0.542670 1725
3054 6351 6994 14193 0.447474 0.492778 643
3055 4769 8169 13453 0.354493 0.607225 3400
3056 18706 28848 50570 0.369903 0.570457 10142
3057 3283 5404 9059 0.362402 0.596534 2121
3058 20854 51729 76246 0.273509 0.678449 30875
3059 79199 145519 236269 0.335207 0.615904 66320
3060 8303 16013 25491 0.325723 0.628182 7710
3061 3802 7669 11961 0.317866 0.641167 3867
3062 37054 43447 85892 0.431402 0.505833 6393
3063 14232 21502 37712 0.377387 0.570163 7270
per_point_diff_16 State FIPS tot_votes_12 ... Density \
2992 -0.217968 WI 55001 10263 ... 32.3
2993 0.089326 WI 55003 8342 ... 15.5
2994 -0.253798 WI 55005 22583 ... 53.2
2995 0.087241 WI 55007 9759 ... 10.2
2996 -0.108505 WI 55009 128514 ... 468.2
2997 -0.219332 WI 55011 7008 ... 20.2
2998 -0.282601 WI 55013 8634 ... 18.8
2999 -0.216088 WI 55015 26336 ... 153.9
3000 -0.191827 WI 55017 30914 ... 61.9
3001 -0.326247 WI 55019 13740 ... 28.7
3002 -0.021682 WI 55021 30460 ... 74.2
3003 -0.054441 WI 55023 7791 ... 29.2
3004 0.479889 WI 55025 302845 ... 407.7
3005 -0.296020 WI 55027 44379 ... 101.4
3006 -0.032073 WI 55029 17607 ... 57.6
3007 0.075952 WI 55031 22862 ... 33.9
3008 -0.111762 WI 55033 21899 ... 51.6
3009 0.073410 WI 55035 54595 ... 154.8
3010 -0.464353 WI 55037 2615 ... 9.1
3011 -0.267213 WI 55039 53272 ... 141.2
3012 -0.267140 WI 55041 4643 ... 9.2
3013 -0.095630 WI 55043 24160 ... 44.7
3014 0.022777 WI 55045 19302 ... 63.1
3015 -0.376812 WI 55047 9657 ... 54.5
3016 0.153427 WI 55049 12515 ... 31.1
3017 -0.234973 WI 55051 3620 ... 7.8
3018 -0.118018 WI 55053 9290 ... 20.7
3019 -0.161847 WI 55055 44136 ... 150.4
3020 -0.263122 WI 55057 11781 ... 34.8
3021 -0.003363 WI 55059 80661 ... 611.9
... ... ... ... ... ... ...
3034 -0.369855 WI 55083 19727 ... 37.7
3035 -0.171522 WI 55085 21577 ... 32.3
3036 -0.141464 WI 55087 94237 ... 277.2
3037 -0.192831 WI 55089 55565 ... 370.7
3038 -0.235718 WI 55091 3696 ... 32.2
3039 -0.136564 WI 55093 20920 ... 71.5
3040 -0.277467 WI 55095 22494 ... 48.4
3041 0.031844 WI 55097 39186 ... 87.4
3042 -0.250132 WI 55099 7870 ... 11.3
3043 -0.043916 WI 55101 102937 ... 587.7
3044 -0.055765 WI 55103 8636 ... 30.7
3045 0.104647 WI 55105 80462 ... 223.3
3046 -0.340447 WI 55107 7171 ... 16.2
3047 0.005288 WI 55111 31832 ... 74.6
3048 -0.229046 WI 55113 9003 ... 13.2
3049 -0.339443 WI 55115 20222 ... 47.0
3050 -0.166958 WI 55117 63272 ... 225.9
3051 -0.184263 WI 55109 46009 ... 116.8
3052 -0.445046 WI 55119 9486 ... 21.2
3053 -0.127016 WI 55121 13456 ... 39.3
3054 -0.045304 WI 55123 14215 ... 37.6
3055 -0.252732 WI 55125 13782 ... 25.0
3056 -0.200554 WI 55127 52115 ... 184.2
3057 -0.234132 WI 55129 9242 ... 20.0
3058 -0.404939 WI 55131 78558 ... 306.2
3059 -0.280697 WI 55133 241084 ... 709.4
3060 -0.302460 WI 55135 25801 ... 70.1
3061 -0.323301 WI 55137 12017 ... 39.1
3062 -0.074431 WI 55139 88814 ... 384.3
3063 -0.192777 WI 55141 38762 ... 94.2
Clinton_Obama Trump_Romney Trump_Pred Clinton_Pred Trump_Dev \
2992 -0.165513 0.139564 0.776206 0.180508 0.184240
2993 -0.123942 0.094932 0.613173 0.321641 0.180672
2994 -0.131862 0.098466 0.736349 0.211629 0.132502
2995 -0.095516 0.066039 0.582163 0.349683 0.147541
2996 -0.067303 0.023266 0.602397 0.336663 0.075389
2997 -0.143577 0.106721 0.735155 0.210820 0.150124
2998 -0.122972 0.094769 0.695729 0.246659 0.075016
2999 -0.071267 0.029314 0.651332 0.288877 0.070720
3000 -0.114711 0.071941 0.711366 0.232713 0.142207
3001 -0.137418 0.099965 0.794629 0.164891 0.156527
3002 -0.101487 0.056242 0.694117 0.248399 0.210626
3003 -0.147039 0.107377 0.736958 0.209103 0.236307
3004 0.002550 -0.041703 0.417227 0.509532 0.183347
3005 -0.096167 0.054628 0.746899 0.206064 0.124661
3006 -0.069040 0.032835 0.626342 0.308535 0.132951
3007 -0.138522 0.098578 0.653686 0.282663 0.218392
3008 -0.106455 0.055218 0.638525 0.298115 0.117076
3009 -0.056549 0.005585 0.574954 0.357029 0.144093
3010 -0.112828 0.087281 0.744337 0.201010 0.028758
3011 -0.079285 0.038263 0.698316 0.245876 0.090730
3012 -0.170199 0.150570 0.708090 0.239360 0.089719
3013 -0.144100 0.088906 0.695417 0.247519 0.182050
3014 -0.094652 0.056025 0.702649 0.239524 0.240034
3015 -0.102606 0.068241 0.742453 0.207256 0.075786
3016 -0.097032 0.052936 0.696655 0.244163 0.299971
3017 -0.126421 0.107170 0.679447 0.259314 0.078354
3018 -0.154947 0.113447 0.702909 0.244307 0.169655
3019 -0.064982 0.020895 0.663945 0.275823 0.110855
3020 -0.180059 0.154109 0.767628 0.187645 0.155153
3021 -0.084138 0.041911 0.598853 0.344750 0.123746
... ... ... ... ... ...
3034 -0.151173 0.123330 0.758603 0.189229 0.093325
3035 -0.094927 0.054998 0.674523 0.264692 0.114125
3036 -0.082966 0.040150 0.630800 0.306105 0.088787
3037 0.034594 -0.077011 0.507454 0.422257 -0.063263
3038 -0.148256 0.109649 0.733734 0.211558 0.138967
3039 -0.090830 0.037608 0.644506 0.291182 0.110578
3040 -0.113439 0.074181 0.710530 0.231249 0.099539
3041 -0.076851 0.030461 0.620968 0.315294 0.166911
3042 -0.139959 0.110555 0.728888 0.215293 0.125449
3043 -0.060034 0.019962 0.589030 0.359554 0.091368
3044 -0.125544 0.091059 0.747900 0.199306 0.242876
3045 -0.086767 0.040571 0.663351 0.283756 0.243818
3046 -0.164014 0.137108 0.740478 0.208102 0.091168
3047 -0.113846 0.065868 0.694897 0.249618 0.226006
3048 -0.131412 0.102743 0.594682 0.340115 -0.000786
3049 -0.137107 0.102098 0.715840 0.228155 0.068939
3050 -0.059826 0.013473 0.660382 0.281341 0.105090
3051 -0.058265 0.004261 0.601819 0.331866 0.043862
3052 -0.141833 0.109665 0.771183 0.180800 0.071491
3053 -0.149224 0.118844 0.725649 0.222068 0.182979
3054 -0.117492 0.075261 0.721656 0.227415 0.228878
3055 -0.075851 0.045986 0.623559 0.312105 0.016334
3056 -0.062065 0.014724 0.620446 0.317953 0.049989
3057 -0.117472 0.088852 0.692328 0.249066 0.095794
3058 -0.020999 -0.017967 0.655162 0.285467 -0.023287
3059 0.013257 -0.054265 0.531777 0.399166 -0.084127
3060 -0.122516 0.085994 0.738824 0.206946 0.110642
3061 -0.125672 0.095440 0.745960 0.204905 0.104793
3062 -0.079891 0.032113 0.635268 0.304854 0.129435
3063 -0.101072 0.062321 0.708775 0.234226 0.138612
Clinton_Dev winner16 winner12 change
2992 -0.193490 GOP Dem GOPchange
2993 -0.200185 Dem Dem Dem
2994 -0.138420 GOP GOP GOP
2995 -0.172180 Dem Dem Dem
2996 -0.081841 GOP GOP GOP
2997 -0.154878 GOP Dem GOPchange
2998 -0.091453 GOP GOP GOP
2999 -0.075647 GOP GOP GOP
3000 -0.144618 GOP GOP GOP
3001 -0.146963 GOP GOP GOP
3002 -0.213410 GOP Dem GOPchange
3003 -0.237107 GOP Dem GOPchange
3004 -0.204237 Dem Dem Dem
3005 -0.120154 GOP GOP GOP
3006 -0.152782 GOP Dem GOPchange
3007 -0.228584 Dem Dem Dem
3008 -0.111573 GOP Dem GOPchange
3009 -0.147243 Dem Dem Dem
3010 -0.050216 GOP GOP GOP
3011 -0.094497 GOP GOP GOP
3012 -0.111872 GOP Dem GOPchange
3013 -0.170218 GOP Dem GOPchange
3014 -0.245868 Dem Dem Dem
3015 -0.082599 GOP GOP GOP
3016 -0.305948 Dem Dem Dem
3017 -0.106806 GOP GOP GOP
3018 -0.170929 GOP Dem GOPchange
3019 -0.115421 GOP GOP GOP
3020 -0.161708 GOP Dem GOPchange
3021 -0.126994 GOP Dem GOPchange
... ... ... ... ...
3034 -0.106193 GOP GOP GOP
3035 -0.124183 GOP GOP GOP
3036 -0.094443 GOP GOP GOP
3037 0.044371 GOP GOP GOP
3038 -0.147491 GOP Dem GOPchange
3039 -0.106182 GOP GOP GOP
3040 -0.102275 GOP GOP GOP
3041 -0.170607 Dem Dem Dem
3042 -0.138014 GOP Dem GOPchange
3043 -0.094192 GOP Dem GOPchange
3044 -0.249953 GOP Dem GOPchange
3045 -0.240424 Dem Dem Dem
3046 -0.100761 GOP GOP GOP
3047 -0.224561 Dem Dem Dem
3048 -0.026308 GOP Dem GOPchange
3049 -0.079303 GOP GOP GOP
3050 -0.106993 GOP GOP GOP
3051 -0.041828 GOP GOP GOP
3052 -0.073846 GOP GOP GOP
3053 -0.193586 GOP Dem GOPchange
3054 -0.220059 GOP Dem GOPchange
3055 -0.042389 GOP GOP GOP
3056 -0.051950 GOP GOP GOP
3057 -0.113336 GOP GOP GOP
3058 0.011958 GOP GOP GOP
3059 0.063959 GOP GOP GOP
3060 -0.118777 GOP GOP GOP
3061 -0.112961 GOP GOP GOP
3062 -0.126548 GOP Dem GOPchange
3063 -0.143161 GOP GOP GOP
[72 rows x 77 columns]
votes_dem_16 votes_gop_16 tot_votes_16 Clinton Trump diff_216 \
1231 1732 4201 6179 0.280304 0.679883 2469
1232 1663 2585 4513 0.368491 0.572790 922
1233 17932 33812 55153 0.325132 0.613058 15880
1234 4877 9090 14688 0.332040 0.618873 4213
1235 4448 8469 13572 0.327734 0.624005 4021
1236 2238 4704 7457 0.300121 0.630817 2466
1237 1156 2158 3486 0.331612 0.619048 1002
1238 9109 19197 30265 0.300975 0.634297 10088
1239 21641 28327 52932 0.408845 0.535158 6686
1240 4108 5539 10221 0.401918 0.541923 1431
1241 29496 38646 71882 0.410339 0.537631 9150
1242 4740 11025 16490 0.287447 0.668587 6285
1243 24154 31489 58786 0.410880 0.535655 7335
1244 7270 14241 23272 0.312393 0.611937 6971
1245 5137 8674 14567 0.352646 0.595455 3537
1246 4302 8680 13647 0.315234 0.636037 4378
1247 5378 9120 15434 0.348451 0.590903 3742
1248 4250 8507 13385 0.317520 0.635562 4257
1249 16490 21635 40564 0.406518 0.533355 5145
1250 2110 4354 6833 0.308796 0.637202 2244
1251 6431 11112 18467 0.348243 0.601722 4681
1252 3923 8580 13140 0.298554 0.652968 4657
1253 24534 27608 55686 0.440578 0.495780 3074
1254 6972 10616 18774 0.371365 0.565463 3644
1255 102744 84174 196135 0.523843 0.429164 18570
1256 3794 8124 12472 0.304201 0.651379 4330
1257 2925 4019 7313 0.399973 0.549569 1094
1258 20964 27412 51460 0.407384 0.532686 6448
1259 5665 9878 16442 0.344544 0.600778 4213
1260 4799 14094 19880 0.241398 0.708954 9295
... ... ... ... ... ... ...
1284 5827 10305 17149 0.339787 0.600910 4478
1285 3539 6704 10765 0.328751 0.622759 3165
1286 15655 23877 42379 0.369405 0.563416 8222
1287 1565 5386 7301 0.214354 0.737707 3821
1288 26859 43255 74101 0.362465 0.583730 16396
1289 7874 16907 26556 0.296505 0.636655 9033
1290 1286 3498 5008 0.256789 0.698482 2212
1291 36640 35962 77114 0.475141 0.466349 678
1292 6212 15174 22605 0.274806 0.671267 8962
1293 342976 289127 663255 0.517110 0.435921 53849
1294 3973 7228 11903 0.333781 0.607242 3255
1295 3030 6827 10386 0.291739 0.657327 3797
1296 1175 2069 3420 0.343567 0.604971 894
1297 2705 7336 10597 0.255261 0.692271 4631
1298 1044 2843 4062 0.257016 0.699902 1799
1299 3556 8266 12529 0.283822 0.659749 4710
1300 46276 90456 145405 0.318256 0.622097 44180
1301 2400 4486 7215 0.332640 0.621760 2086
1302 4287 8141 13036 0.328859 0.624501 3854
1303 44395 45469 94198 0.471295 0.482696 1074
1304 4873 13446 19243 0.253235 0.698748 8573
1305 1369 2556 4151 0.329800 0.615755 1187
1306 12547 19232 34044 0.368552 0.564916 6685
1307 24553 49067 77994 0.314806 0.629112 24514
1308 7529 14886 23765 0.316810 0.626383 7357
1309 7493 17421 26157 0.286463 0.666017 9928
1310 13258 17890 33213 0.399181 0.538645 4632
1311 128025 50335 187201 0.683891 0.268882 77690
1312 517842 228908 775450 0.667795 0.295194 288934
1313 4436 10000 15279 0.290333 0.654493 5564
per_point_diff_16 State FIPS tot_votes_12 ... Density \
1231 -0.399579 MI 26001 6086 ... 16.2
1232 -0.204299 MI 26003 4603 ... 10.5
1233 -0.287926 MI 26005 49199 ... 135.0
1234 -0.286833 MI 26007 14014 ... 51.8
1235 -0.296272 MI 26009 13184 ... 49.6
1236 -0.330696 MI 26011 7826 ... 43.8
1237 -0.287435 MI 26013 3490 ... 9.9
1238 -0.333322 MI 26015 28483 ... 107.0
1239 -0.126313 MI 26017 51077 ... 243.7
1240 -0.140006 MI 26019 9847 ... 54.8
1241 -0.127292 MI 26021 72322 ... 276.2
1242 -0.381140 MI 26023 16278 ... 89.4
1243 -0.124775 MI 26025 58231 ... 192.8
1244 -0.299545 MI 26027 22461 ... 106.7
1245 -0.242809 MI 26029 14064 ... 62.3
1246 -0.320803 MI 26031 13288 ... 36.6
1247 -0.242452 MI 26033 15564 ... 24.7
1248 -0.318043 MI 26035 13492 ... 54.8
1249 -0.126837 MI 26037 39125 ... 133.1
1250 -0.328406 MI 26039 6814 ... 25.3
1251 -0.253479 MI 26041 18043 ... 31.7
1252 -0.354414 MI 26043 12785 ... 34.4
1253 -0.055202 MI 26045 54707 ... 187.3
1254 -0.194098 MI 26047 17672 ... 69.9
1255 0.094680 MI 26049 202699 ... 668.5
1256 -0.347178 MI 26051 12552 ... 51.2
1257 -0.149597 MI 26053 7576 ... 14.9
1258 -0.125301 MI 26055 47901 ... 187.3
1259 -0.256234 MI 26057 16011 ... 74.7
1260 -0.467555 MI 26059 19081 ... 78.1
... ... ... ... ... ... ...
1284 -0.261123 MI 26107 16879 ... 77.1
1285 -0.294008 MI 26109 10922 ... 23.0
1286 -0.194011 MI 26111 41808 ... 162.0
1287 -0.523353 MI 26113 7024 ... 26.3
1288 -0.221266 MI 26115 72682 ... 276.7
1289 -0.340149 MI 26117 25383 ... 89.8
1290 -0.441693 MI 26119 5051 ... 17.9
1291 0.008792 MI 26121 76054 ... 344.9
1292 -0.396461 MI 26123 21424 ... 59.6
1293 0.081189 MI 26125 650306 ... 1385.7
1294 -0.273460 MI 26127 11438 ... 51.9
1295 -0.365588 MI 26129 10361 ... 38.5
1296 -0.261404 MI 26131 3535 ... 5.2
1297 -0.437010 MI 26133 10265 ... 41.5
1298 -0.442885 MI 26135 4027 ... 15.3
1299 -0.375928 MI 26137 11829 ... 46.9
1300 -0.303841 MI 26139 132695 ... 468.2
1301 -0.289120 MI 26141 7077 ... 20.3
1302 -0.295643 MI 26143 13032 ... 47.1
1303 -0.011402 MI 26145 97903 ... 250.2
1304 -0.445513 MI 26151 18359 ... 44.8
1305 -0.285955 MI 26153 4046 ... 7.2
1306 -0.196364 MI 26155 33590 ... 133.1
1307 -0.314306 MI 26147 73740 ... 226.1
1308 -0.309573 MI 26149 23314 ... 122.4
1309 -0.379554 MI 26157 26482 ... 69.4
1310 -0.139463 MI 26159 32798 ... 125.5
1311 0.415008 MI 26161 179016 ... 488.4
1312 0.372602 MI 26163 814108 ... 2974.4
1313 -0.364160 MI 26165 13859 ... 57.9
Clinton_Obama Trump_Romney Trump_Pred Clinton_Pred Trump_Dev \
1231 -0.124231 0.093127 0.767359 0.183051 0.087476
1232 -0.112065 0.066815 0.669596 0.276996 0.096807
1233 -0.073128 0.023148 0.675162 0.266382 0.062103
1234 -0.135279 0.098108 0.727853 0.218387 0.108980
1235 -0.059630 0.023505 0.661054 0.278537 0.037049
1236 -0.168701 0.112800 0.773480 0.180208 0.142664
1237 -0.119391 0.084377 0.706112 0.254113 0.087064
1238 -0.102634 0.049703 0.719298 0.223416 0.085001
1239 -0.115794 0.070468 0.694297 0.250056 0.159139
1240 -0.073659 0.026944 0.659431 0.281708 0.117507
1241 -0.052383 0.009313 0.566006 0.384889 0.028375
1242 -0.113462 0.080370 0.729102 0.219866 0.060515
1243 -0.091773 0.049007 0.613162 0.333681 0.077507
1244 -0.114436 0.048293 0.699191 0.251220 0.087254
1245 -0.069424 0.026841 0.637268 0.300808 0.041812
1246 -0.123432 0.087873 0.708745 0.236435 0.072708
1247 -0.107729 0.059035 0.589902 0.349567 -0.001001
1248 -0.152166 0.117626 0.739678 0.210228 0.104116
1249 -0.058325 0.006070 0.615322 0.321020 0.081967
1250 -0.130594 0.087745 0.745460 0.206216 0.108258
1251 -0.113432 0.073373 0.689088 0.249798 0.087366
1252 -0.088775 0.051638 0.687293 0.249403 0.034325
1253 -0.069631 0.016993 0.606845 0.331818 0.111065
1254 -0.037474 -0.014720 0.590187 0.343149 0.024724
1255 -0.112430 0.074909 0.561914 0.389927 0.132750
1256 -0.154690 0.120707 0.763656 0.189408 0.112277
1257 -0.135666 0.094976 0.647902 0.290378 0.098333
1258 -0.028410 -0.021207 0.602817 0.332206 0.070132
1259 -0.130504 0.086382 0.694060 0.253312 0.093282
1260 -0.131014 0.094363 0.723933 0.222942 0.014980
... ... ... ... ... ...
1284 -0.105441 0.057335 0.629915 0.308758 0.029005
1285 -0.151381 0.113237 0.734201 0.209696 0.111442
1286 -0.048697 -0.009250 0.584656 0.350880 0.021240
1287 -0.109393 0.073556 0.763948 0.187602 0.026241
1288 -0.137109 0.094022 0.708417 0.238001 0.124687
1289 -0.153835 0.099917 0.726214 0.221358 0.089560
1290 -0.148873 0.118795 0.786692 0.166718 0.088209
1291 -0.109128 0.060295 0.610264 0.339604 0.143916
1292 -0.132354 0.089770 0.734973 0.213973 0.063706
1293 -0.019645 -0.020066 0.416685 0.522692 -0.019236
1294 -0.108866 0.061779 0.695351 0.251917 0.088109
1295 -0.170668 0.132571 0.755388 0.194845 0.098061
1296 -0.104806 0.065791 0.744077 0.203002 0.139106
1297 -0.132562 0.094122 0.735052 0.211671 0.042781
1298 -0.153711 0.126770 0.784462 0.171787 0.084561
1299 -0.111901 0.067307 0.696381 0.245087 0.036631
1300 -0.006308 -0.044869 0.588647 0.348783 -0.033450
1301 -0.118398 0.085657 0.750886 0.200235 0.129126
1302 -0.146740 0.110306 0.741161 0.208554 0.116659
1303 -0.084072 0.046387 0.571244 0.382055 0.088548
1304 -0.139597 0.101711 0.763604 0.185707 0.064857
1305 -0.131149 0.086343 0.692166 0.246445 0.076411
1306 -0.143415 0.089715 0.729348 0.213179 0.164432
1307 -0.144171 0.099197 0.709763 0.236244 0.080651
1308 -0.116663 0.069851 0.720044 0.232032 0.093660
1309 -0.153195 0.117833 0.755834 0.194268 0.089817
1310 -0.097435 0.046541 0.659453 0.287956 0.120809
1311 0.009141 -0.046179 0.324863 0.603924 0.055981
1312 -0.063377 0.032838 0.424179 0.543890 0.128985
1313 -0.122179 0.079271 0.710348 0.234596 0.055855
Clinton_Dev winner16 winner12 change
1231 -0.097253 GOP GOP GOP
1232 -0.091495 GOP GOP GOP
1233 -0.058750 GOP GOP GOP
1234 -0.113652 GOP GOP GOP
1235 -0.049196 GOP GOP GOP
1236 -0.119912 GOP GOP GOP
1237 -0.077499 GOP GOP GOP
1238 -0.077559 GOP GOP GOP
1239 -0.158789 GOP Dem GOPchange
1240 -0.120210 GOP GOP GOP
1241 -0.025450 GOP GOP GOP
1242 -0.067581 GOP GOP GOP
1243 -0.077199 GOP Dem GOPchange
1244 -0.061173 GOP GOP GOP
1245 -0.051839 GOP GOP GOP
1246 -0.078799 GOP GOP GOP
1247 0.001115 GOP GOP GOP
1248 -0.107292 GOP GOP GOP
1249 -0.085499 GOP GOP GOP
1250 -0.102579 GOP GOP GOP
1251 -0.098445 GOP GOP GOP
1252 -0.049151 GOP GOP GOP
1253 -0.108760 GOP Dem GOPchange
1254 -0.028216 GOP GOP GOP
1255 -0.133917 Dem Dem Dem
1256 -0.114793 GOP GOP GOP
1257 -0.109595 GOP Dem GOPchange
1258 -0.075178 GOP GOP GOP
1259 -0.091232 GOP GOP GOP
1260 -0.018457 GOP GOP GOP
... ... ... ... ...
1284 -0.031028 GOP GOP GOP
1285 -0.119054 GOP GOP GOP
1286 -0.018525 GOP GOP GOP
1287 -0.026752 GOP GOP GOP
1288 -0.124463 GOP Dem GOPchange
1289 -0.075147 GOP GOP GOP
1290 -0.090071 GOP GOP GOP
1291 -0.135537 Dem Dem Dem
1292 -0.060834 GOP GOP GOP
1293 0.005581 Dem Dem Dem
1294 -0.081865 GOP GOP GOP
1295 -0.096894 GOP GOP GOP
1296 -0.140565 GOP GOP GOP
1297 -0.043590 GOP GOP GOP
1298 -0.085229 GOP GOP GOP
1299 -0.038735 GOP GOP GOP
1300 0.030527 GOP GOP GOP
1301 -0.132405 GOP GOP GOP
1302 -0.120305 GOP GOP GOP
1303 -0.089239 GOP Dem GOPchange
1304 -0.067528 GOP GOP GOP
1305 -0.083355 GOP GOP GOP
1306 -0.155373 GOP Dem GOPchange
1307 -0.078563 GOP GOP GOP
1308 -0.084779 GOP GOP GOP
1309 -0.092194 GOP GOP GOP
1310 -0.111225 GOP Dem GOPchange
1311 -0.079967 Dem Dem Dem
1312 -0.123905 Dem Dem Dem
1313 -0.055737 GOP GOP GOP
[83 rows x 77 columns]
votes_dem_16 votes_gop_16 tot_votes_16 Clinton Trump diff_216 \
551 1127 2456 3759 0.299814 0.653365 1329
552 565 1393 2082 0.271374 0.669068 828
553 2409 4072 6837 0.352348 0.595583 1663
554 1813 4031 6096 0.297408 0.661253 2218
555 1079 2135 3379 0.319325 0.631844 1056
556 4672 8226 13690 0.341271 0.600877 3554
557 32006 27382 63221 0.506256 0.433116 4624
558 5517 7458 13984 0.394522 0.533324 1941
559 5349 7199 13350 0.400674 0.539251 1850
560 3966 5504 10137 0.391240 0.542961 1538
561 2851 4895 8179 0.348576 0.598484 2044
562 2163 4918 7457 0.290063 0.659515 2755
563 1396 3466 5105 0.273457 0.678942 2070
564 3305 6627 10435 0.316723 0.635074 3322
565 1946 4755 7055 0.275833 0.673990 2809
566 3578 5275 9386 0.381206 0.562007 1697
567 9840 11583 22633 0.434763 0.511775 1743
568 1676 4188 6186 0.270934 0.677013 2512
569 2264 3739 6367 0.355583 0.587247 1475
570 1463 2706 4405 0.332123 0.614302 1243
571 2246 5870 8542 0.262936 0.687193 3624
572 3236 5309 9098 0.355683 0.583535 2073
573 10079 11249 22748 0.443072 0.494505 1170
574 1985 4608 6862 0.289274 0.671524 2623
575 15662 19288 37617 0.416354 0.512747 3626
576 976 2721 3858 0.252981 0.705288 1745
577 1201 2296 3703 0.324332 0.620038 1095
578 2956 5688 9165 0.322531 0.620622 2732
579 8178 9479 18713 0.437022 0.506546 1301
580 3051 6743 10247 0.297746 0.658046 3692
.. ... ... ... ... ... ...
620 8284 9549 19086 0.434035 0.500314 1265
621 1314 5735 7348 0.178824 0.780484 4421
622 552 2528 3197 0.172662 0.790741 1976
623 1801 4875 6968 0.258467 0.699627 3074
624 1395 3079 4674 0.298460 0.658751 1684
625 2878 9659 13057 0.220418 0.739756 6781
626 962 2692 3831 0.251109 0.702689 1730
627 119671 93421 228420 0.523908 0.408988 26250
628 15341 24441 42226 0.363307 0.578814 9100
629 4272 4936 9693 0.440730 0.509233 664
630 753 1820 2684 0.280551 0.678092 1067
631 1269 3692 5158 0.246026 0.715781 2423
632 40302 39083 84878 0.474823 0.460461 1219
633 1649 4340 6270 0.262998 0.692185 2691
634 2289 14761 17989 0.127244 0.820557 12472
635 25085 19111 48910 0.512881 0.390738 5974
636 3194 4968 8636 0.369847 0.575266 1774
637 755 2108 3003 0.251415 0.701965 1353
638 1920 3521 5768 0.332871 0.610437 1601
639 843 2524 3526 0.239081 0.715825 1681
640 5591 8710 14996 0.372833 0.580822 3119
641 10371 14773 26916 0.385310 0.548856 4402
642 3938 6170 10824 0.363821 0.570030 2232
643 719 2069 2921 0.246149 0.708319 1350
644 6293 10049 17239 0.365044 0.582922 3756
645 1920 3437 5717 0.335840 0.601189 1517
646 5238 5332 11217 0.466970 0.475350 94
647 16102 24627 42933 0.375049 0.573615 8525
648 1523 2443 4216 0.361243 0.579459 920
649 1890 3790 5949 0.317700 0.637082 1900
per_point_diff_16 State FIPS tot_votes_12 ... Density \
551 -0.353551 IA 19001 3959 ... 13.5
552 -0.397695 IA 19003 2158 ... 9.5
553 -0.243235 IA 19005 6824 ... 22.4
554 -0.363845 IA 19007 6176 ... 25.9
555 -0.312518 IA 19009 3439 ... 13.8
556 -0.259606 IA 19011 13959 ... 36.4
557 0.073140 IA 19013 66205 ... 231.7
558 -0.138801 IA 19015 14237 ... 46.0
559 -0.138577 IA 19017 13218 ... 55.7
560 -0.151721 IA 19019 10478 ... 36.7
561 -0.249908 IA 19021 8322 ... 35.2
562 -0.369452 IA 19023 7510 ... 25.6
563 -0.405485 IA 19025 5190 ... 17.0
564 -0.318352 IA 19027 10581 ... 36.6
565 -0.398157 IA 19029 7167 ... 24.7
566 -0.180801 IA 19031 9548 ... 31.9
567 -0.077011 IA 19033 23548 ... 77.7
568 -0.406078 IA 19035 6367 ... 20.9
569 -0.231663 IA 19037 6462 ... 24.7
570 -0.282179 IA 19039 4398 ... 21.5
571 -0.424257 IA 19041 8400 ... 29.4
572 -0.227852 IA 19043 9035 ... 23.3
573 -0.051433 IA 19045 24873 ... 70.7
574 -0.382250 IA 19047 6686 ... 23.9
575 -0.096393 IA 19049 37799 ... 112.4
576 -0.452307 IA 19051 3738 ... 17.4
577 -0.295706 IA 19053 3812 ... 15.9
578 -0.298091 IA 19055 9323 ... 30.7
579 -0.069524 IA 19057 20264 ... 96.9
580 -0.360301 IA 19059 10118 ... 43.8
.. ... ... ... ... ... ...
620 -0.066279 IA 19139 19726 ... 97.7
621 -0.601660 IA 19141 7295 ... 25.1
622 -0.618079 IA 19143 3179 ... 16.2
623 -0.441160 IA 19145 7014 ... 29.8
624 -0.360291 IA 19147 4857 ... 16.7
625 -0.519338 IA 19149 12909 ... 29.0
626 -0.451579 IA 19151 3992 ... 12.7
627 0.114920 IA 19153 227563 ... 750.5
628 -0.215507 IA 19155 41679 ... 98.0
629 -0.068503 IA 19157 9858 ... 32.3
630 -0.397541 IA 19159 2578 ... 9.6
631 -0.469756 IA 19161 5256 ... 18.0
632 0.014362 IA 19163 89826 ... 360.7
633 -0.429187 IA 19165 6456 ... 20.6
634 -0.693313 IA 19167 17181 ... 43.9
635 0.122143 IA 19169 46529 ... 156.3
636 -0.205419 IA 19171 8930 ... 24.6
637 -0.450549 IA 19173 2978 ... 11.9
638 -0.277566 IA 19175 5899 ... 29.6
639 -0.476744 IA 19177 3540 ... 15.6
640 -0.207989 IA 19179 15630 ... 82.5
641 -0.163546 IA 19181 25875 ... 81.1
642 -0.206208 IA 19183 10880 ... 38.2
643 -0.462170 IA 19185 2886 ... 12.2
644 -0.217878 IA 19187 18118 ... 53.1
645 -0.265349 IA 19189 5878 ... 27.1
646 -0.008380 IA 19191 11016 ... 30.5
647 -0.198565 IA 19193 44702 ... 117.1
648 -0.218216 IA 19195 4143 ... 19.0
649 -0.319381 IA 19197 6174 ... 22.8
Clinton_Obama Trump_Romney Trump_Pred Clinton_Pred Trump_Dev \
551 -0.151815 0.120402 0.749378 0.196284 0.096013
552 -0.200359 0.157947 0.762705 0.183313 0.093637
553 -0.162160 0.122253 0.733559 0.212693 0.137976
554 -0.177657 0.150729 0.718338 0.228122 0.057085
555 -0.148253 0.108436 0.751097 0.195473 0.119253
556 -0.149452 0.104064 0.729163 0.214403 0.128287
557 -0.087929 0.039218 0.586857 0.356978 0.153742
558 -0.129254 0.073957 0.701202 0.240524 0.167878
559 -0.106967 0.056349 0.648935 0.289050 0.109684
560 -0.172131 0.118930 0.741277 0.204217 0.198316
561 -0.093986 0.051981 0.644557 0.310598 0.046073
562 -0.152147 0.113043 0.758332 0.187263 0.098818
563 -0.156600 0.122102 0.701952 0.241637 0.023010
564 -0.147506 0.107997 0.721871 0.221805 0.086796
565 -0.122660 0.086296 0.705227 0.234224 0.031237
566 -0.135237 0.089657 0.721399 0.221399 0.159392
567 -0.125964 0.083543 0.671409 0.267455 0.159635
568 -0.141034 0.102802 0.709095 0.233306 0.032083
569 -0.194092 0.148373 0.772310 0.177173 0.185063
570 -0.165149 0.131355 0.722257 0.223893 0.107955
571 -0.137421 0.099812 0.715332 0.224941 0.028139
572 -0.172043 0.124653 0.735026 0.207489 0.151491
573 -0.164937 0.115660 0.698021 0.246619 0.203516
574 -0.164659 0.135479 0.692599 0.262777 0.021075
575 -0.019266 -0.040733 0.502200 0.428464 -0.010547
576 -0.153119 0.134662 0.725242 0.223555 0.019954
577 -0.145238 0.109807 0.701902 0.248339 0.081864
578 -0.171408 0.124215 0.761295 0.184959 0.140673
579 -0.148894 0.105342 0.666368 0.277141 0.159822
580 -0.106287 0.073840 0.674368 0.264733 0.016322
.. ... ... ... ... ...
620 -0.134402 0.087053 0.693291 0.255707 0.192977
621 -0.090401 0.059580 0.705949 0.236203 -0.074535
622 -0.113277 0.090836 0.762313 0.190286 -0.028428
623 -0.110509 0.081150 0.706538 0.238946 0.006911
624 -0.138847 0.113352 0.746215 0.200805 0.087465
625 -0.100908 0.075336 0.707990 0.233644 -0.031766
626 -0.129151 0.104492 0.696318 0.241950 -0.006371
627 -0.039734 -0.013001 0.516128 0.420806 0.107140
628 -0.100884 0.056944 0.685219 0.257888 0.106405
629 -0.097614 0.061983 0.647975 0.289316 0.138741
630 -0.177556 0.148224 0.733548 0.213702 0.055455
631 -0.156752 0.128643 0.725082 0.218432 0.009300
632 -0.088277 0.034938 0.539645 0.397575 0.079184
633 -0.119282 0.087631 0.724353 0.219353 0.032168
634 -0.028916 -0.015308 0.680011 0.265370 -0.140546
635 -0.044621 -0.029580 0.392457 0.527297 0.001719
636 -0.160612 0.118827 0.686915 0.253842 0.111648
637 -0.172023 0.137828 0.730834 0.211724 0.028869
638 -0.180606 0.135780 0.705582 0.234423 0.095146
639 -0.155834 0.134469 0.751256 0.197574 0.035431
640 -0.178415 0.147232 0.694517 0.254440 0.113696
641 -0.098594 0.045242 0.650757 0.284225 0.101902
642 -0.103183 0.060838 0.702342 0.242730 0.132313
643 -0.187323 0.159809 0.761914 0.187124 0.053595
644 -0.156978 0.116370 0.674115 0.271238 0.091192
645 -0.156674 0.108335 0.700604 0.240369 0.099414
646 -0.099933 0.056141 0.655691 0.281703 0.180341
647 -0.117680 0.078424 0.636528 0.308643 0.062914
648 -0.204289 0.158750 0.723809 0.217028 0.144350
649 -0.134842 0.101125 0.723157 0.222116 0.086075
Clinton_Dev winner16 winner12 change
551 -0.103530 GOP GOP GOP
552 -0.088060 GOP GOP GOP
553 -0.139655 GOP Dem GOPchange
554 -0.069286 GOP GOP GOP
555 -0.123852 GOP GOP GOP
556 -0.126868 GOP GOP GOP
557 -0.149278 Dem Dem Dem
558 -0.153999 GOP Dem GOPchange
559 -0.111624 GOP Dem GOPchange
560 -0.187023 GOP Dem GOPchange
561 -0.037977 GOP GOP GOP
562 -0.102800 GOP GOP GOP
563 -0.031820 GOP GOP GOP
564 -0.094918 GOP GOP GOP
565 -0.041609 GOP GOP GOP
566 -0.159807 GOP Dem GOPchange
567 -0.167309 GOP Dem GOPchange
568 -0.037628 GOP GOP GOP
569 -0.178410 GOP Dem GOPchange
570 -0.108230 GOP Dem GOPchange
571 -0.037995 GOP GOP GOP
572 -0.148194 GOP Dem GOPchange
573 -0.196453 GOP Dem GOPchange
574 -0.026498 GOP GOP GOP
575 0.012109 GOP GOP GOP
576 -0.029426 GOP GOP GOP
577 -0.075993 GOP GOP GOP
578 -0.137572 GOP GOP GOP
579 -0.159881 GOP Dem GOPchange
580 -0.033013 GOP GOP GOP
.. ... ... ... ...
620 -0.178328 GOP Dem GOPchange
621 0.057379 GOP GOP GOP
622 0.017624 GOP GOP GOP
623 -0.019522 GOP GOP GOP
624 -0.097655 GOP GOP GOP
625 0.013226 GOP GOP GOP
626 -0.009159 GOP GOP GOP
627 -0.103102 Dem Dem Dem
628 -0.105419 GOP GOP GOP
629 -0.151414 GOP Dem GOPchange
630 -0.066849 GOP GOP GOP
631 -0.027594 GOP GOP GOP
632 -0.077248 Dem Dem Dem
633 -0.043645 GOP GOP GOP
634 0.138125 GOP GOP GOP
635 0.014416 Dem Dem Dem
636 -0.116005 GOP Dem GOPchange
637 -0.039692 GOP GOP GOP
638 -0.098448 GOP Dem GOPchange
639 -0.041507 GOP GOP GOP
640 -0.118393 GOP Dem GOPchange
641 -0.101085 GOP GOP GOP
642 -0.121091 GOP GOP GOP
643 -0.059025 GOP GOP GOP
644 -0.093807 GOP Dem GOPchange
645 -0.095472 GOP GOP GOP
646 -0.185266 GOP Dem GOPchange
647 -0.066406 GOP GOP GOP
648 -0.144215 GOP Dem GOPchange
649 -0.095585 GOP GOP GOP
[99 rows x 77 columns]
votes_dem_16 votes_gop_16 tot_votes_16 Clinton Trump diff_216 \
2806 6737 8582 15755 0.427610 0.544716 1845
2807 33297 19232 56134 0.593170 0.342609 14065
2808 57147 13241 74384 0.768270 0.178009 43906
2809 2165 4873 7306 0.296332 0.666986 2708
2810 2150 4704 7035 0.305615 0.668657 2554
2811 4986 9643 15164 0.328805 0.635914 4657
2812 2023 5714 7954 0.254337 0.718381 3691
2813 91879 20155 119344 0.769867 0.168882 71724
2814 8108 26152 36661 0.221161 0.713347 18044
2815 603 1548 2243 0.268836 0.690147 945
2816 9733 30578 42186 0.230716 0.724838 20845
2817 453 2572 3124 0.145006 0.823303 2119
2818 4492 13369 18641 0.240974 0.717183 8877
2819 1832 4884 6966 0.262992 0.701120 3052
2820 4473 3045 7645 0.585088 0.398300 1428
2821 1721 7292 9220 0.186659 0.790889 5571
2822 3128 3969 7284 0.429434 0.544893 841
2823 693 1432 2395 0.289353 0.597912 739
2824 6597 19442 27218 0.242376 0.714307 12845
2825 6425 7143 14189 0.452816 0.503418 718
2826 2557 10653 13587 0.188195 0.784058 8096
2827 2244 1381 3745 0.599199 0.368758 863
2828 2153 3479 5792 0.371720 0.600656 1326
2829 17865 2951 22211 0.804331 0.132862 14914
2830 52554 53988 111827 0.469958 0.482781 1434
2831 80993 84938 175288 0.462057 0.484563 3945
2832 3047 4657 8131 0.374739 0.572746 1610
2833 2367 5681 8427 0.280883 0.674143 3314
2834 914 1349 2369 0.385817 0.569439 435
2835 541 2139 2784 0.194325 0.768319 1598
... ... ... ... ... ... ...
2909 1741 2532 4444 0.391764 0.569757 791
2910 1347 2213 3651 0.368940 0.606135 866
2911 74640 14254 94724 0.787973 0.150479 60386
2912 16787 30857 50149 0.334742 0.615306 14070
2913 23403 16045 41728 0.560846 0.384514 7358
2914 3506 6671 10685 0.328124 0.624333 3165
2915 9361 25269 36536 0.256213 0.691619 15908
2916 2328 9516 12195 0.190898 0.780320 7188
2917 4212 7225 12129 0.347267 0.595680 3013
2918 1579 8242 10055 0.157036 0.819692 6663
2919 5269 14078 20335 0.259110 0.692304 8809
2920 2661 9747 12825 0.207485 0.760000 7086
2921 3595 5035 8872 0.405207 0.567516 1440
2922 24204 34619 62083 0.389865 0.557624 10415
2923 27879 33840 65350 0.426611 0.517827 5961
2924 5329 5129 11144 0.478195 0.460248 200
2925 23012 17206 41929 0.548833 0.410360 5806
2926 2069 1785 3976 0.520372 0.448944 284
2927 2874 2055 5036 0.570691 0.408062 819
2928 2895 15160 18495 0.156529 0.819681 12265
2929 76744 84389 171876 0.446508 0.490988 7645
2930 5165 11762 17791 0.290315 0.661121 6597
2931 5548 19309 25715 0.215750 0.750885 13761
2932 3762 4798 9114 0.412772 0.526443 1036
2933 3723 4331 8291 0.449041 0.522374 608
2934 5199 1921 7534 0.690072 0.254977 3278
2935 5161 4786 10574 0.488084 0.452620 375
2936 2687 11983 14991 0.179241 0.799346 9296
2937 2765 10044 13250 0.208679 0.758038 7279
2938 12989 18823 34062 0.381334 0.552610 5834
per_point_diff_16 State FIPS tot_votes_12 ... Density \
2806 -0.117106 VA 51001 16020 ... 73.8
2807 0.250561 VA 51003 53732 ... 137.3
2808 0.590261 VA 51510 73470 ... 9314.3
2809 -0.370654 VA 51005 7162 ... 36.5
2810 -0.363042 VA 51007 6885 ... 35.7
2811 -0.307109 VA 51009 14937 ... 68.3
2812 -0.464043 VA 51011 7924 ... 44.9
2813 0.600985 VA 51013 117279 ... 7993.6
2814 -0.492185 VA 51015 33614 ... 76.3
2815 -0.421311 VA 51017 2218 ... 8.9
2816 -0.494121 VA 51019 40750 ... 91.2
2817 -0.678297 VA 51021 2937 ... 19.1
2818 -0.476208 VA 51023 18208 ... 61.2
2819 -0.438128 VA 51520 7356 ... 1370.6
2820 0.186789 VA 51025 8029 ... 30.8
2821 -0.604230 VA 51027 9636 ... 47.9
2822 -0.115459 VA 51029 7447 ... 29.6
2823 -0.308559 VA 51530 2526 ... 991.9
2824 -0.471930 VA 51031 25632 ... 108.8
2825 -0.050603 VA 51033 13590 ... 54.1
2826 -0.595864 VA 51035 12315 ... 63.3
2827 0.230441 VA 51036 4213 ... 39.7
2828 -0.228936 VA 51037 5897 ... 26.5
2829 0.671469 VA 51540 21455 ... 4246.4
2830 -0.012823 VA 51550 110105 ... 652.0
2831 -0.022506 VA 51041 172223 ... 747.1
2832 -0.198008 VA 51043 7731 ... 79.7
2833 -0.393260 VA 51570 8593 ... 2315.3
2834 -0.183622 VA 51580 2329 ... 1090.2
2835 -0.573994 VA 51045 2664 ... 15.7
... ... ... ... ... ... ...
2909 -0.177993 VA 51157 4331 ... 27.7
2910 -0.237195 VA 51159 3768 ... 48.3
2911 0.637494 VA 51760 92175 ... 3414.7
2912 -0.280564 VA 51161 53793 ... 368.7
2913 0.176332 VA 51770 37479 ... 2279.8
2914 -0.296210 VA 51163 10155 ... 37.3
2915 -0.435406 VA 51165 34783 ... 89.9
2916 -0.589422 VA 51167 12063 ... 61.0
2917 -0.248413 VA 51775 12270 ... 1717.9
2918 -0.662655 VA 51169 9964 ... 43.3
2919 -0.433194 VA 51171 19289 ... 82.5
2920 -0.552515 VA 51173 12751 ... 71.4
2921 -0.162308 VA 51175 9261 ... 31.0
2922 -0.167759 VA 51177 57797 ... 304.9
2923 -0.091217 VA 51179 60338 ... 479.5
2924 0.017947 VA 51790 11154 ... 1188.8
2925 0.138472 VA 51800 42381 ... 211.4
2926 0.071429 VA 51181 4302 ... 25.3
2927 0.162629 VA 51183 5421 ... 24.7
2928 -0.663152 VA 51185 17712 ... 86.9
2929 -0.044480 VA 51810 195823 ... 1758.9
2930 -0.370805 VA 51187 16636 ... 176.0
2931 -0.535135 VA 51191 25582 ... 97.8
2932 -0.113671 VA 51820 8772 ... 1396.8
2933 -0.073333 VA 51193 8689 ... 76.1
2934 0.435094 VA 51830 7722 ... 1559.3
2935 0.035464 VA 51840 10254 ... 2838.0
2936 -0.620105 VA 51195 14937 ... 102.8
2937 -0.549358 VA 51197 12336 ... 63.3
2938 -0.171276 VA 51199 33848 ... 624.8
Clinton_Obama Trump_Romney Trump_Pred Clinton_Pred Trump_Dev \
2806 -0.050105 0.032107 0.581350 0.393294 0.036634
2807 0.040203 -0.090336 0.386286 0.549346 0.043677
2808 0.054591 -0.097001 0.157486 0.785520 -0.020523
2809 -0.178815 0.165031 0.749784 0.211480 0.082798
2810 -0.055751 0.040625 0.706145 0.273623 0.037488
2811 -0.066053 0.042421 0.682317 0.293122 0.046403
2812 -0.055228 0.044479 0.659381 0.308273 -0.059000
2813 0.077688 -0.124717 0.141770 0.785838 -0.027112
2814 -0.059912 0.010842 0.730029 0.228557 0.016682
2815 -0.134229 0.115756 0.667812 0.276449 -0.022335
2816 -0.037382 0.006285 0.663496 0.289370 -0.061342
2817 -0.105249 0.093307 0.753350 0.204727 -0.069954
2818 -0.058290 0.032264 0.676580 0.270205 -0.040602
2819 -0.075100 0.051854 0.676170 0.282652 -0.024950
2820 -0.036782 0.029013 0.519995 0.483981 0.121696
2821 -0.134428 0.122977 0.843232 0.139813 0.052343
2822 -0.073721 0.065640 0.635336 0.359014 0.090443
2823 -0.074463 -0.021248 0.736164 0.231784 0.138252
2824 -0.053777 0.024271 0.671466 0.290901 -0.042841
2825 -0.081254 0.051027 0.612454 0.362650 0.109036
2826 -0.096012 0.105942 0.804408 0.164642 0.020349
2827 -0.058765 0.037403 0.547837 0.447625 0.179079
2828 -0.052564 0.039184 0.638043 0.347857 0.037387
2829 0.046140 -0.090909 0.259289 0.680428 0.126426
2830 -0.029556 -0.006252 0.463915 0.492765 -0.018866
2831 0.003616 -0.044832 0.448405 0.503092 -0.036157
2832 -0.043965 0.017191 0.614370 0.332690 0.041623
2833 -0.014823 -0.016769 0.613540 0.340927 -0.060603
2834 -0.180521 0.150804 0.734435 0.235702 0.164997
2835 -0.117237 0.108784 0.774061 0.174607 0.005742
... ... ... ... ... ...
2909 -0.063327 0.037086 0.628915 0.327289 0.059158
2910 -0.048788 0.032887 0.671968 0.318451 0.065833
2911 0.017298 -0.063592 0.272018 0.702187 0.121539
2912 -0.029413 -0.004551 0.587425 0.356488 -0.027881
2913 -0.030925 0.007876 0.487708 0.479364 0.103194
2914 -0.074338 0.043536 0.698937 0.255863 0.074604
2915 -0.032980 -0.003347 0.715146 0.245960 0.023527
2916 -0.117151 0.102462 0.830136 0.142561 0.049816
2917 -0.040345 0.001629 0.578206 0.369104 -0.017474
2918 -0.083329 0.073104 0.830751 0.141809 0.011059
2919 -0.075900 0.042918 0.712110 0.241659 0.019806
2920 -0.119469 0.103110 0.762240 0.200156 0.002240
2921 -0.073899 0.056448 0.612821 0.372762 0.045306
2922 -0.045279 0.007111 0.549904 0.400905 -0.007721
2923 -0.023023 -0.019629 0.458656 0.484441 -0.059172
2924 -0.033729 -0.011063 0.572392 0.382467 0.112144
2925 -0.022036 -0.009120 0.438464 0.530899 0.028104
2926 -0.077954 0.060520 0.567426 0.424120 0.118482
2927 -0.047276 0.035253 0.564405 0.448601 0.156343
2928 -0.050167 0.038120 0.789557 0.179802 -0.030124
2929 -0.034350 -0.015117 0.445965 0.496915 -0.045023
2930 -0.097338 0.068130 0.710940 0.247441 0.049819
2931 -0.060851 0.041753 0.725633 0.231865 -0.025252
2932 -0.024529 -0.019499 0.620972 0.335431 0.094529
2933 -0.029150 0.048671 0.635715 0.342302 0.113341
2934 0.055392 -0.091824 0.313037 0.619897 0.058059
2935 -0.008210 -0.029436 0.502574 0.447526 0.049954
2936 -0.071880 0.060175 0.782806 0.193288 -0.016541
2937 -0.097903 0.083265 0.769371 0.192360 0.011333
2938 -0.007611 -0.043644 0.436329 0.499767 -0.116281
Clinton_Dev winner16 winner12 change
2806 -0.034316 GOP GOP GOP
2807 -0.043823 Dem Dem Dem
2808 0.017250 Dem Dem Dem
2809 -0.084851 GOP GOP GOP
2810 -0.031991 GOP GOP GOP
2811 -0.035683 GOP GOP GOP
2812 0.053935 GOP GOP GOP
2813 0.015971 Dem Dem Dem
2814 0.007395 GOP GOP GOP
2815 0.007613 GOP GOP GOP
2816 0.058653 GOP GOP GOP
2817 0.059720 GOP GOP GOP
2818 0.029231 GOP GOP GOP
2819 0.019660 GOP GOP GOP
2820 -0.101107 Dem Dem Dem
2821 -0.046846 GOP GOP GOP
2822 -0.070421 GOP Dem GOPchange
2823 -0.057569 GOP GOP GOP
2824 0.048525 GOP GOP GOP
2825 -0.090166 GOP Dem GOPchange
2826 -0.023553 GOP GOP GOP
2827 -0.151574 Dem Dem Dem
2828 -0.023862 GOP GOP GOP
2829 -0.123904 Dem Dem Dem
2830 0.022807 GOP Dem GOPchange
2831 0.041035 GOP GOP GOP
2832 -0.042049 GOP GOP GOP
2833 0.060044 GOP GOP GOP
2834 -0.150115 GOP Dem GOPchange
2835 -0.019717 GOP GOP GOP
... ... ... ... ...
2909 -0.064476 GOP GOP GOP
2910 -0.050489 GOP GOP GOP
2911 -0.085787 Dem Dem Dem
2912 0.021745 GOP GOP GOP
2913 -0.081483 Dem Dem Dem
2914 -0.072260 GOP GOP GOP
2915 -0.010253 GOP GOP GOP
2916 -0.048337 GOP GOP GOP
2917 0.021838 GOP GOP GOP
2918 -0.015227 GOP GOP GOP
2919 -0.017451 GOP GOP GOP
2920 -0.007329 GOP GOP GOP
2921 -0.032446 GOP GOP GOP
2922 0.011040 GOP GOP GOP
2923 0.057831 GOP GOP GOP
2924 -0.095727 Dem Dem Dem
2925 -0.017934 Dem Dem Dem
2926 -0.096252 Dem Dem Dem
2927 -0.122090 Dem Dem Dem
2928 0.023273 GOP GOP GOP
2929 0.050407 GOP GOP GOP
2930 -0.042874 GOP GOP GOP
2931 0.016116 GOP GOP GOP
2932 -0.077341 GOP GOP GOP
2933 -0.106739 GOP Dem GOPchange
2934 -0.070175 Dem Dem Dem
2935 -0.040558 Dem Dem Dem
2936 0.014047 GOP GOP GOP
2937 -0.016319 GOP GOP GOP
2938 0.118433 GOP GOP GOP
[133 rows x 77 columns]
In [364]:
FL = raw[raw.State == 'FL']
CO = raw[raw.State == 'CO']
PA = raw[raw.State == 'PA']
NH = raw[raw.State == 'NH']
NV = raw[raw.State == 'NV']
OH = raw[raw.State == 'OH']
WI = raw[raw.State == 'WI']
MI = raw[raw.State == 'MI']
IA = raw[raw.State == 'IA']
NC = raw[raw.State == 'NC']
VA = raw[raw.State == 'VA']
I used the below code to double check that all the states had been included in the final total data frame.
In [365]:
dfs = [FL, PA, OH, CO, IA, MI, NV, NH, NC, VA, WI]
finalfull = pd.concat(dfs, keys=swingstate)
print(list(finalfull['State']))
['FL', 'FL', 'FL', 'FL', 'FL', 'FL', 'FL', 'FL', 'FL', 'FL', 'FL', 'FL', 'FL', 'FL', 'FL', 'FL', 'FL', 'FL', 'FL', 'FL', 'FL', 'FL', 'FL', 'FL', 'FL', 'FL', 'FL', 'FL', 'FL', 'FL', 'FL', 'FL', 'FL', 'FL', 'FL', 'FL', 'FL', 'FL', 'FL', 'FL', 'FL', 'FL', 'FL', 'FL', 'FL', 'FL', 'FL', 'FL', 'FL', 'FL', 'FL', 'FL', 'FL', 'FL', 'FL', 'FL', 'FL', 'FL', 'FL', 'FL', 'FL', 'FL', 'FL', 'FL', 'FL', 'FL', 'FL', 'PA', 'PA', 'PA', 'PA', 'PA', 'PA', 'PA', 'PA', 'PA', 'PA', 'PA', 'PA', 'PA', 'PA', 'PA', 'PA', 'PA', 'PA', 'PA', 'PA', 'PA', 'PA', 'PA', 'PA', 'PA', 'PA', 'PA', 'PA', 'PA', 'PA', 'PA', 'PA', 'PA', 'PA', 'PA', 'PA', 'PA', 'PA', 'PA', 'PA', 'PA', 'PA', 'PA', 'PA', 'PA', 'PA', 'PA', 'PA', 'PA', 'PA', 'PA', 'PA', 'PA', 'PA', 'PA', 'PA', 'PA', 'PA', 'PA', 'PA', 'PA', 'PA', 'PA', 'PA', 'PA', 'PA', 'PA', 'OH', 'OH', 'OH', 'OH', 'OH', 'OH', 'OH', 'OH', 'OH', 'OH', 'OH', 'OH', 'OH', 'OH', 'OH', 'OH', 'OH', 'OH', 'OH', 'OH', 'OH', 'OH', 'OH', 'OH', 'OH', 'OH', 'OH', 'OH', 'OH', 'OH', 'OH', 'OH', 'OH', 'OH', 'OH', 'OH', 'OH', 'OH', 'OH', 'OH', 'OH', 'OH', 'OH', 'OH', 'OH', 'OH', 'OH', 'OH', 'OH', 'OH', 'OH', 'OH', 'OH', 'OH', 'OH', 'OH', 'OH', 'OH', 'OH', 'OH', 'OH', 'OH', 'OH', 'OH', 'OH', 'OH', 'OH', 'OH', 'OH', 'OH', 'OH', 'OH', 'OH', 'OH', 'OH', 'OH', 'OH', 'OH', 'OH', 'OH', 'OH', 'OH', 'OH', 'OH', 'OH', 'OH', 'OH', 'OH', 'CO', 'CO', 'CO', 'CO', 'CO', 'CO', 'CO', 'CO', 'CO', 'CO', 'CO', 'CO', 'CO', 'CO', 'CO', 'CO', 'CO', 'CO', 'CO', 'CO', 'CO', 'CO', 'CO', 'CO', 'CO', 'CO', 'CO', 'CO', 'CO', 'CO', 'CO', 'CO', 'CO', 'CO', 'CO', 'CO', 'CO', 'CO', 'CO', 'CO', 'CO', 'CO', 'CO', 'CO', 'CO', 'CO', 'CO', 'CO', 'CO', 'CO', 'CO', 'CO', 'CO', 'CO', 'CO', 'CO', 'CO', 'CO', 'CO', 'CO', 'CO', 'CO', 'CO', 'CO', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'IA', 'MI', 'MI', 'MI', 'MI', 'MI', 'MI', 'MI', 'MI', 'MI', 'MI', 'MI', 'MI', 'MI', 'MI', 'MI', 'MI', 'MI', 'MI', 'MI', 'MI', 'MI', 'MI', 'MI', 'MI', 'MI', 'MI', 'MI', 'MI', 'MI', 'MI', 'MI', 'MI', 'MI', 'MI', 'MI', 'MI', 'MI', 'MI', 'MI', 'MI', 'MI', 'MI', 'MI', 'MI', 'MI', 'MI', 'MI', 'MI', 'MI', 'MI', 'MI', 'MI', 'MI', 'MI', 'MI', 'MI', 'MI', 'MI', 'MI', 'MI', 'MI', 'MI', 'MI', 'MI', 'MI', 'MI', 'MI', 'MI', 'MI', 'MI', 'MI', 'MI', 'MI', 'MI', 'MI', 'MI', 'MI', 'MI', 'MI', 'MI', 'MI', 'MI', 'MI', 'NV', 'NV', 'NV', 'NV', 'NV', 'NV', 'NV', 'NV', 'NV', 'NV', 'NV', 'NV', 'NV', 'NV', 'NV', 'NV', 'NV', 'NH', 'NH', 'NH', 'NH', 'NH', 'NH', 'NH', 'NH', 'NH', 'NH', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'NC', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'VA', 'WI', 'WI', 'WI', 'WI', 'WI', 'WI', 'WI', 'WI', 'WI', 'WI', 'WI', 'WI', 'WI', 'WI', 'WI', 'WI', 'WI', 'WI', 'WI', 'WI', 'WI', 'WI', 'WI', 'WI', 'WI', 'WI', 'WI', 'WI', 'WI', 'WI', 'WI', 'WI', 'WI', 'WI', 'WI', 'WI', 'WI', 'WI', 'WI', 'WI', 'WI', 'WI', 'WI', 'WI', 'WI', 'WI', 'WI', 'WI', 'WI', 'WI', 'WI', 'WI', 'WI', 'WI', 'WI', 'WI', 'WI', 'WI', 'WI', 'WI', 'WI', 'WI', 'WI', 'WI', 'WI', 'WI', 'WI', 'WI', 'WI', 'WI', 'WI', 'WI']
I created 4 different data frames to be able to conduct different analyses but only was able to code the graphs for the first data frame which was the general elction and looking at which counties changed. It's key to change the index to integers otherwise a key part of graphing the data will not work. However, the multiple methods of trial and error didn't result in me being able to set the index with FIPS as an int.
In [372]:
elect= [ 'FIPS',"County" , "State", 'Clinton',
'Trump', 'Obama', 'Romney', "winner16", "winner12", "change"]
election = finalfull[elect]
#raw.loc[:, election[FIPS"]] = election["FIPS"].astype(int)
In [369]:
s = pd.Series(election["FIPS"])
a = pd.to_numeric(s)
b = pd.Series(election["FIPS"])
c = pd.to_numeric(s)
In [373]:
g = election["FIPS"].astype(int)
print(g)
FL 321 12001
322 12003
323 12005
324 12007
325 12009
326 12011
327 12013
328 12015
329 12017
330 12019
331 12021
332 12023
333 12027
334 12029
335 12031
336 12033
337 12035
338 12037
339 12039
340 12041
341 12043
342 12045
343 12047
344 12049
345 12051
346 12053
347 12055
348 12057
349 12059
350 12061
...
VA 3034 55083
3035 55085
3036 55087
3037 55089
3038 55091
3039 55093
3040 55095
3041 55097
3042 55099
3043 55101
3044 55103
3045 55105
3046 55107
3047 55111
3048 55113
3049 55115
3050 55117
3051 55109
3052 55119
3053 55121
3054 55123
3055 55125
3056 55127
3057 55129
3058 55131
3059 55133
3060 55135
3061 55137
3062 55139
3063 55141
Name: FIPS, dtype: int64
In [379]:
raw.loc[:, election["FIPS"]] = "g"
#election["FIPS"] = g
#election.set_index("FIPS")
#election.head()
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
KeyError Traceback (most recent call last)
<ipython-input-379-ed6753c27306> in <module>()
----> 1 raw.loc[:, election["FIPS"]] = "g"
2 #election["FIPS"] = g
3 #election.set_index("FIPS")
4 #election.head()
/Users/Chandra/anaconda/lib/python3.5/site-packages/pandas/core/indexing.py in __setitem__(self, key, value)
129 else:
130 key = com._apply_if_callable(key, self.obj)
--> 131 indexer = self._get_setitem_indexer(key)
132 self._setitem_with_indexer(indexer, value)
133
/Users/Chandra/anaconda/lib/python3.5/site-packages/pandas/core/indexing.py in _get_setitem_indexer(self, key)
111
112 if isinstance(key, tuple) and not self.ndim < len(key):
--> 113 return self._convert_tuple(key, is_setter=True)
114 if isinstance(key, range):
115 return self._convert_range(key, is_setter=True)
/Users/Chandra/anaconda/lib/python3.5/site-packages/pandas/core/indexing.py in _convert_tuple(self, key, is_setter)
173 else:
174 for i, k in enumerate(key):
--> 175 idx = self._convert_to_indexer(k, axis=i, is_setter=is_setter)
176 keyidx.append(idx)
177 return tuple(keyidx)
/Users/Chandra/anaconda/lib/python3.5/site-packages/pandas/core/indexing.py in _convert_to_indexer(self, obj, axis, is_setter)
1212 mask = check == -1
1213 if mask.any():
-> 1214 raise KeyError('%s not in index' % objarr[mask])
1215
1216 return _values_from_object(indexer)
KeyError: '[12001 12003 12005 12007 12009 12011 12013 12015 12017 12019 12021 12023\n 12027 12029 12031 12033 12035 12037 12039 12041 12043 12045 12047 12049\n 12051 12053 12055 12057 12059 12061 12063 12065 12067 12069 12071 12073\n 12075 12077 12079 12081 12083 12085 12086 12087 12089 12091 12093 12095\n 12097 12099 12101 12103 12105 12107 12113 12115 12117 12109 12111 12119\n 12121 12123 12125 12127 12129 12131 12133 42001 42003 42005 42007 42009\n 42011 42013 42015 42017 42019 42021 42023 42025 42027 42029 42031 42033\n 42035 42037 42039 42041 42043 42045 42047 42049 42051 42053 42055 42057\n 42059 42061 42063 42065 42067 42069 42071 42073 42075 42077 42079 42081\n 42083 42085 42087 42089 42091 42093 42095 42097 42099 42101 42103 42105\n 42107 42109 42111 42113 42115 42117 42119 42121 42123 42125 42127 42129\n 42131 42133 39001 39003 39005 39007 39009 39011 39013 39015 39017 39019\n 39021 39023 39025 39027 39029 39031 39033 39035 39037 39039 39041 39043\n 39045 39047 39049 39051 39053 39055 39057 39059 39061 39063 39065 39067\n 39069 39071 39073 39075 39077 39079 39081 39083 39085 39087 39089 39091\n 39093 39095 39097 39099 39101 39103 39105 39107 39109 39111 39113 39115\n 39117 39119 39121 39123 39125 39127 39129 39131 39133 39135 39137 39139\n 39141 39143 39145 39147 39149 39151 39153 39155 39157 39159 39161 39163\n 39165 39167 39169 39171 39173 39175 8001 8003 8005 8007 8009 8011\n 8013 8014 8015 8017 8019 8021 8023 8025 8027 8029 8031 8033\n 8035 8037 8039 8041 8043 8045 8047 8049 8051 8053 8055 8057\n 8059 8061 8063 8065 8067 8069 8071 8073 8075 8077 8079 8081\n 8083 8085 8087 8089 8091 8093 8095 8097 8099 8101 8103 8105\n 8107 8109 8111 8113 8115 8117 8119 8121 8123 8125 19001 19003\n 19005 19007 19009 19011 19013 19015 19017 19019 19021 19023 19025 19027\n 19029 19031 19033 19035 19037 19039 19041 19043 19045 19047 19049 19051\n 19053 19055 19057 19059 19061 19063 19065 19067 19069 19071 19073 19075\n 19077 19079 19081 19083 19085 19087 19089 19091 19093 19095 19097 19099\n 19101 19103 19105 19107 19109 19111 19113 19115 19117 19119 19121 19123\n 19125 19127 19129 19131 19133 19135 19137 19139 19141 19143 19145 19147\n 19149 19151 19153 19155 19157 19159 19161 19163 19165 19167 19169 19171\n 19173 19175 19177 19179 19181 19183 19185 19187 19189 19191 19193 19195\n 19197 26001 26003 26005 26007 26009 26011 26013 26015 26017 26019 26021\n 26023 26025 26027 26029 26031 26033 26035 26037 26039 26041 26043 26045\n 26047 26049 26051 26053 26055 26057 26059 26061 26063 26065 26067 26069\n 26071 26073 26075 26077 26079 26081 26083 26085 26087 26089 26091 26093\n 26095 26097 26099 26101 26103 26105 26107 26109 26111 26113 26115 26117\n 26119 26121 26123 26125 26127 26129 26131 26133 26135 26137 26139 26141\n 26143 26145 26151 26153 26155 26147 26149 26157 26159 26161 26163 26165\n 32510 32001 32003 32005 32007 32009 32011 32013 32015 32017 32019 32021\n 32023 32027 32029 32031 32033 33001 33003 33005 33007 33009 33011 33013\n 33015 33017 33019 37001 37003 37005 37007 37009 37011 37013 37015 37017\n 37019 37021 37023 37025 37027 37029 37031 37033 37035 37037 37039 37041\n 37043 37045 37047 37049 37051 37053 37055 37057 37059 37061 37063 37065\n 37067 37069 37071 37073 37075 37077 37079 37081 37083 37085 37087 37089\n 37091 37093 37095 37097 37099 37101 37103 37105 37107 37109 37113 37115\n 37117 37111 37119 37121 37123 37125 37127 37129 37131 37133 37135 37137\n 37139 37141 37143 37145 37147 37149 37151 37153 37155 37157 37159 37161\n 37163 37165 37167 37169 37171 37173 37175 37177 37179 37181 37183 37185\n 37187 37189 37191 37193 37195 37197 37199 51001 51003 51510 51005 51007\n 51009 51011 51013 51015 51017 51019 51021 51023 51520 51025 51027 51029\n 51530 51031 51033 51035 51036 51037 51540 51550 51041 51043 51570 51580\n 51045 51047 51049 51590 51051 51053 51595 51057 51059 51600 51610 51061\n 51063 51065 51067 51620 51069 51630 51640 51071 51073 51075 51077 51079\n 51081 51083 51650 51085 51660 51087 51089 51091 51670 51093 51095 51097\n 51099 51101 51103 51105 51678 51107 51109 51111 51680 51113 51683 51685\n 51690 51115 51117 51119 51121 51125 51127 51700 51710 51131 51133 51720\n 51135 51137 51139 51141 51730 51143 51735 51740 51145 51147 51149 51153\n 51155 51750 51157 51159 51760 51161 51770 51163 51165 51167 51775 51169\n 51171 51173 51175 51177 51179 51790 51800 51181 51183 51185 51810 51187\n 51191 51820 51193 51830 51840 51195 51197 51199 55001 55003 55005 55007\n 55009 55011 55013 55015 55017 55019 55021 55023 55025 55027 55029 55031\n 55033 55035 55037 55039 55041 55043 55045 55047 55049 55051 55053 55055\n 55057 55059 55061 55063 55065 55067 55069 55071 55073 55075 55077 55078\n 55079 55081 55083 55085 55087 55089 55091 55093 55095 55097 55099 55101\n 55103 55105 55107 55111 55113 55115 55117 55109 55119 55121 55123 55125\n 55127 55129 55131 55133 55135 55137 55139 55141] not in index'
In [324]:
print(type(election["FIPS"]))
<class 'pandas.core.series.Series'>
Here comes the fun part. I chose to use the plotly graph because I though the visuals given so many data points were much better. The following code allows me to use a large map of the US shown by County. It would display counties the Dems held in Red, the GOP held Blue, and if it changed hands in Orange or Purple. By creating different variables to sort out the key components such as the map, the color, we can declutter the final graphing solution.
In [381]:
# this is the "scale" or view for the map
sc_geo_county = AlbersUSA()
sc_c1_county = OrdinalColorScale(domain=['GOP', 'Dem', 'GOPchange', 'Demchange'], colors=['Red', 'DeepSkyBlue','Orange' , "Purple"])
axis_county = ColorAxis(scale=sc_c1_county)
# this is the actual data that we will map.
# It is a dict that maps FIPS to winner's name (that's why we did set_index above)
color_data_county = election2["change"].to_dict()
# build the map
county_map = Map(map_data=topo_load('map_data/USCountiesMap.json'),
color=color_data_county,
scales=dict(projection=sc_geo_county, color=sc_c1_county),
colors=dict(default_color="Grey"))
# put the map in a figure
county_fig = Figure(marks=[county_map],
axes=[axis_county],
title='US Elections 2012-16 changes',
min_width=1000, min_height=600)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
AttributeError Traceback (most recent call last)
<ipython-input-381-1d0c4fb8a0a6> in <module>()
14 color=color_data_county,
15 scales=dict(projection=sc_geo_county, color=sc_c1_county),
---> 16 colors=dict(default_color="Grey"))
17
18
/Users/Chandra/anaconda/lib/python3.5/site-packages/bqplot/marks.py in __init__(self, **kwargs)
213
214 def __init__(self, **kwargs):
--> 215 super(Mark, self).__init__(**kwargs)
216 self._hover_handlers = CallbackDispatcher()
217 self._click_handlers = CallbackDispatcher()
/Users/Chandra/anaconda/lib/python3.5/site-packages/ipywidgets/widgets/widget.py in __init__(self, **kwargs)
170 _holding_sync = False
171 _states_to_send = Set()
--> 172 _display_callbacks = Instance(CallbackDispatcher, ())
173 _msg_callbacks = Instance(CallbackDispatcher, ())
174
/Users/Chandra/anaconda/lib/python3.5/site-packages/traitlets/config/configurable.py in __init__(self, **kwargs)
72 # load kwarg traits, other than config
73 super(Configurable, self).__init__(**kwargs)
---> 74
75 # load config
76 if config is not None:
/Users/Chandra/anaconda/lib/python3.5/site-packages/traitlets/traitlets.py in __init__(self, *args, **kwargs)
950 # the cls argument.
951 new_meth = super(HasDescriptors, cls).__new__
--> 952 if new_meth is object.__new__:
953 inst = new_meth(cls)
954 else:
/Users/Chandra/anaconda/lib/python3.5/contextlib.py in __exit__(self, type, value, traceback)
64 if type is None:
65 try:
---> 66 next(self.gen)
67 except StopIteration:
68 return
/Users/Chandra/anaconda/lib/python3.5/site-packages/traitlets/traitlets.py in hold_trait_notifications(self)
1054 """
1055 if self._cross_validation_lock:
-> 1056 yield
1057 return
1058 else:
/Users/Chandra/anaconda/lib/python3.5/site-packages/traitlets/traitlets.py in _cross_validate(self, obj, value)
570 # we explicitly compare silent to True just in case the equality
571 # comparison above returns something other than True/False
--> 572 obj._notify_trait(self.name, old_value, new_value)
573
574 def __set__(self, obj, value):
/Users/Chandra/anaconda/lib/python3.5/site-packages/traitlets/traitlets.py in __call__(self, *args, **kwargs)
857 ----------
858 name
--> 859 The str name of the Trait on the object whose default should be generated.
860
861 Notes
/Users/Chandra/anaconda/lib/python3.5/site-packages/bqplot/marks.py in _validate_scales(self, proposal)
197 # At this stage it is already validated that all values in self.scales
198 # are instances of Scale.
--> 199 scales = proposal.value
200 for name in self.trait_names(scaled=True):
201 trait = self.traits()[name]
AttributeError: 'dict' object has no attribute 'value'
I beileve the reason I'm getting the above error message is due to complication above. I've attempted to set the index to FIPS which needs to be an int. However,there is an error message popping that I can't resolve. As a result, when I refer to the dictionary that has the key as the value from the hange column in the election2 dataframe there is no correspondinfg FIPS value that allows the map to be charted. As a result the dict has no value, because it isn't being set as an integer.
Had this worked, I would've screenshotted different parts of the country to show the map in greater detail.
In [ ]:
In the future I'd like to look at correlations between the below indicators and the counties that changed from 2016 to 2012
In [348]:
demo = ['FIPS','County', 'State', 'pop2014est', 'pop2010est', 'pop_change%', '-18', '65+', 'female', 'White', 'Black', 'Native', 'Asian', 'Pacific', 'Multi', 'Hispanic', 'White-nh', 'foreignborn', 'NonEnglish', 'highschool', 'bachelors', 'Veterans']
econ = ['FIPS', "County" , "State",'pop_change%', 'Homeownrate', 'tot_households', 'persperhouse', 'Percap_Inc', 'Med_house_inc', 'Poverty']
bus = ['FIPS', "County" , "State",'TOT_firms', 'Black_own_firms', 'Nat_own_firms', 'Asian_own_firms', 'Pac_own_firms', 'Hisp_own_firms', 'Wom_own_firms' , 'tot_ret_sales', 'Retsalepercap', 'Accomandfoodsales']
demographics = finalfull[demo]
econindicators = finalfull[econ]
bus_wellbeing = finalfull[bus]
demographics.set_index(['FIPS'])
econindicators.set_index(['FIPS'])
bus_wellbeing.set_index(['FIPS'])
Out[348]:
County
State
TOT_firms
Black_own_firms
Nat_own_firms
Asian_own_firms
Pac_own_firms
Hisp_own_firms
Wom_own_firms
tot_ret_sales
Retsalepercap
Accomandfoodsales
FIPS
12001
Alachua County
FL
20676
7.8
0.0
3.8
0.0
6.7
31.6
3152244
13124
493980
12003
Baker County
FL
1727
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
26.2
180555
7052
19819
12005
Bay County
FL
15465
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.3
2.7
29.0
2471968
15138
480359
12007
Bradford County
FL
2106
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
215629
7436
37088
12009
Brevard County
FL
45939
6.1
0.4
2.9
0.0
5.3
30.4
6593988
12339
855503
12011
Broward County
FL
237524
16.4
0.5
3.7
0.1
22.1
29.8
30886257
17680
4209090
12013
Calhoun County
FL
1034
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
64750
4791
9289
12015
Charlotte County
FL
13987
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
26.4
1898114
12072
178021
12017
Citrus County
FL
12451
2.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
30.9
1405565
10051
109681
12019
Clay County
FL
15242
6.3
0.0
4.2
0.0
4.5
28.8
2005718
10997
213775
12021
Collier County
FL
38309
3.3
0.0
1.8
0.0
15.5
26.8
5186468
16546
1037152
12023
Columbia County
FL
5089
5.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
3.4
24.7
862158
12692
103321
12027
DeSoto County
FL
1899
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
24.0
280786
8001
24311
12029
Dixie County
FL
919
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
49120
3303
7395
12031
Duval County
FL
69495
14.1
0.3
4.9
0.0
6.3
29.8
13316700
15688
1719352
12033
Escambia County
FL
24187
9.5
0.0
3.7
0.1
2.4
30.6
4055667
13404
493882
12035
Flagler County
FL
9695
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
684121
7766
114760
12037
Franklin County
FL
1758
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
92324
8191
37568
12039
Gadsden County
FL
2765
35.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
29.8
440290
9422
18920
12041
Gilchrist County
FL
1104
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
52477
3102
8145
12043
Glades County
FL
354
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
29.4
13064
1191
4894
12045
Gulf County
FL
1232
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
76286
4840
18763
12047
Hamilton County
FL
816
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
35.5
103218
7243
7863
12049
Hardee County
FL
1363
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
22.0
0.0
400142
13878
17883
12051
Hendry County
FL
2489
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
34.3
0.0
345685
8774
37321
12053
Hernando County
FL
13476
3.6
0.8
0.0
0.0
8.7
26.6
1654088
9789
166197
12055
Highlands County
FL
7360
0.0
0.0
3.7
0.0
14.4
24.1
1089559
11060
100789
12057
Hillsborough County
FL
114841
8.6
0.6
4.5
0.0
19.9
28.6
19110290
16335
2619799
12059
Holmes County
FL
937
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
20.3
73133
3825
8328
12061
Indian River County
FL
15401
4.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
6.0
0.0
1851697
13940
190526
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
55083
Oconto County
WI
3165
0.0
3.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
257543
6897
28196
55085
Oneida County
WI
4167
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
18.2
921151
25450
84113
55087
Outagamie County
WI
12666
0.3
0.0
2.1
0.0
1.0
24.1
2902996
16710
296108
55089
Ozaukee County
WI
8559
0.4
0.3
1.5
0.0
0.0
26.2
976543
11432
124890
55091
Pepin County
WI
0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
90048
12207
0
55093
Pierce County
WI
3519
0.0
0.0
1.7
0.0
0.0
28.9
208532
5243
32888
55095
Polk County
WI
4606
0.0
0.0
1.0
0.0
0.0
27.3
423199
9580
41813
55097
Portage County
WI
5022
2.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
25.8
937882
13685
97014
55099
Price County
WI
2077
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
22.6
121071
8362
0
55101
Racine County
WI
13283
3.8
0.0
2.2
0.0
2.1
26.2
2230013
11172
242667
55103
Richland County
WI
1275
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
223315
12285
0
55105
Rock County
WI
11212
2.7
0.4
1.6
0.0
1.9
27.9
2439767
15301
211671
55107
Rusk County
WI
1562
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
198374
13756
0
55111
Sauk County
WI
5637
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
23.8
1050852
18017
462144
55113
Sawyer County
WI
2363
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
224148
13223
74686
55115
Shawano County
WI
3402
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.7
23.7
413963
10068
42735
55117
Sheboygan County
WI
7858
0.5
0.0
1.8
0.0
0.0
22.2
1398661
12257
193012
55109
St. Croix County
WI
8287
0.0
0.0
0.6
0.0
0.3
25.4
933401
11509
110863
55119
Taylor County
WI
1971
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
22.2
189138
9793
0
55121
Trempealeau County
WI
2277
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
23.1
251829
9088
0
55123
Vernon County
WI
2897
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
250463
8639
0
55125
Vilas County
WI
3491
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
19.1
312228
14218
161614
55127
Walworth County
WI
9675
0.0
0.0
1.2
0.0
1.9
25.3
1091166
10886
267234
55129
Washburn County
WI
2106
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
17.9
178121
10746
25328
55131
Washington County
WI
10318
0.6
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.4
19.9
1759993
13729
152903
55133
Waukesha County
WI
36589
0.8
0.3
2.2
0.0
1.0
24.7
5955006
15712
616641
55135
Waupaca County
WI
3897
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.8
24.6
516629
9929
55597
55137
Waushara County
WI
2378
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
23.9
203004
8226
25080
55139
Winnebago County
WI
10710
0.0
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.8
23.4
1796479
11126
212069
55141
Wood County
WI
6203
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
25.3
1002909
13585
84291
800 rows × 12 columns
In the future, I'd like to look into using the filter function to only sort out the counties that changed from party to party and look at their specific economic indicators. If i was able to isolate to counties that changed hands, I could plot a scatter plot using the margin of victory by each candidate against economic indicators such as homeownership rate. Additionally, given the contraversy over immigration, I'd like to see if there's a correlation of counties that went to Trump, and are GOP territory, and the foreignborn data.
In [349]:
print(type(demographics['FIPS']))
<class 'pandas.core.series.Series'>
There was a small problem with the data regarding the population in 2010. There were 2 different numbers on that provided the estimate and one that was the actual population data. The following code is to check if there any major discrepancies. Because the numbers were few I left it with estimate so I didnt have to recreat the % of Population change. A more accurate measure would have been teh standard deviation, but I felt that was unnecessary given the small numbers.
In [274]:
popdifference = finalfull['Pop2010']-finalfull['pop2010est']
In [217]:
for num in popdifference :
if num > 1000 or num < -1000:
print(num)
for num in popdifference :
if num > 100 or num < -100:
print(num)
-1357
-1582
-2387
2384
-6190
-1357
-532
-1582
-270
532
-145
-260
253
-114
-129
-129
-175
-155
133
-507
-153
-275
-124
-110
-171
-2387
2384
-6190
263
-392
-199
-133
113
-263
144
395
278
-149
Content source: NYUDataBootcamp/Projects
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